In his Strategic Plan 2022-2026 unveiled last week, Hydro-Quebec goes there with an admission, at least implicitly. “From now on, our priorities will no longer be to sell large quantities of energy, but rather to help Quebec consume better and maximize the value of our energy by targeting the most promising uses. »
The state-owned company confirms that it will no longer swim in electricity surpluses while the demand for green electricity, for its part, will increase. Until now, Hydro-Quebec gargled with speeches on the virtues of energy efficiency, but, in reality, it had no interest in encouraging these savings apart from ad hoc management of the peak in winter. Her priority was to sell as many kilowatts (kW) as possible, since she had surpluses on her hands. She offered energy efficiency programs, but we can’t say that she really benefited from them. Nor its shareholder, moreover, the Quebec government, which is counting on the growth of the dividend paid to it by the state-owned company.
The deal has now changed, says the CEO of Hydro-Quebec, Sophie Brochu. By 2050, in the context of the fight against climate change and the replacement of fossil fuels, the state-owned company will need 100 terawatt hours (tWh) more, or half of its current production capacity including its power contracts. wind energy supply. To put things into perspective, this is the equivalent of 12 times the Romaine complex, built at a cost of $6 billion, or even the energy of a new Baie-James.
Obviously, these predictions over almost 30 years must be considered with some reserve. Even making forecasts over five years, the period covered by Hydro-Québec’s strategic plan, is an exercise subject to hazards, whether it is a pandemic or a recession. In the longer term, technological breakthroughs also come into play.
Over a ten-year period, between 2019 and 2029, Hydro-Québec’s supply plan already forecast an increase in demand of around 20 tWh. It is therefore the fifth of the way that we would have to cover in 30 years. The state-owned company intends to increase its production capacity by 5,000 megawatts (MW). The optimization of existing power stations accounts for 2,000 MW and extends until 2035. Hydro-Québec Production also intends to build a portfolio of wind power projects of 3,000 MW by 2026, to be deployed according to changes in demand. It is considerable. This is an energy output that corresponds to approximately three-quarters of the wind farms in operation in Quebec.
At the same time as this capacity addition, Hydro-Québec wants to intensify its energy efficiency efforts to recover 4 tWh by 2025 and double that by the end of the decade. In the longer term, however, this may not be enough. Because it is clear that a large part of the additional energy that Quebec will need will have to come from negawatts, that is to say from energy savings. For two reasons. First, because now that the heritage pool, at a cost of 3 cents per kWh, is almost fully utilized and since capacity additions cost an average of 11 cents per kWh, according to Sophie Brochu, any increase in this capacity will push prices up. Then, it is the scale of the growth to come that makes one tick. It is impossible to envisage the construction of a new Baie-James: the rivers that it is possible to harness, if indeed it is deemed desirable, are becoming rare. The costs, too, are prohibitive.
In this context, energy efficiency is the best way to keep electricity rates low. On the other hand, launching headlong into the construction of new production infrastructure would lead to a spike in prices. It is better for Hydro-Québec to spend 3 cents per kWh to reduce its customers’ consumption than to invest 11 cents to sell them more electricity.
Hydro-Québec deploys demand management tools, technologies that are expected to be developed. But Quebec has immense potential for energy savings. It lies in the staggering number of poorly insulated houses and dwellings. We must think of these tenants who assume the cost of their heating, in housing where the owners have no interest in investing to reduce the electricity bill. Or even to less well-off households, which do not have the means to take advantage of energy efficiency programs. This goes beyond the responsibility of Hydro-Québec: it is in fact a social project that the government must embrace.