The four parties represented in the National Assembly, as well as the Conservative Party of Quebec, are preparing their weapons for the launch of the election campaign at the end of August. Looking at the polls, we can’t say that the suspense is very great: the Coalition avenir Québec has already won. For uncertainty and surprises, we will have to rely instead on the losing formations.
As reported The duty on Tuesday, the parties are busy completing their list of candidates. For the number of candidates announced, Québec solidaire wins the prize with 120, followed by the CAQ with 114. Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party is doing well with its 105 confirmed candidates, and not all of them are conspiratorial smokers. It is more laborious for the Parti Québécois and for the Liberal Party of Quebec, this ruling party which is far from it. Thus, Dominique Anglade has yet to reveal nearly half of the liberal candidates.
The latest Léger poll, published a week ago in the Montreal Journal, essentially confirmed the results of the soundings of the last few months. The CAQ is enthroned with 44% of the voting intentions of decided voters. At 59%, the rate of satisfaction with the government is high, and François Legault is still perceived as the leader who would make the best prime minister by the greatest number of respondents, by far. The poll also shows that he is the leader who is perceived by the greatest number as the one who can best manage the next waves of COVID-19.
It is difficult to discern in this survey an element which could prove to be a source of any concern for the CAQists. Even subjective questions about voters’ attitudes toward party leaders — “Who would you choose to go for a coffee or a beer or to discuss social or political issues?” – are to the advantage of François Legault. He is also the most “competent”, the “nicest”, the most “honest”, the most “funny”. Don’t throw any more, the yard is full.
It is true that the polls on voting intentions that take place in the summer in Quebec often give a few more points to the party in power. In July and August, the electorate is more relaxed, in a better mood. People who are angry and dissatisfied with the government are a little less so, which could explain why the Conservative Party of Quebec has lost some support. More than 60% of respondents who intend to vote for Éric Duhaime’s party are not only dissatisfied, but very dissatisfied with the CAQ government. But there again, beyond the slight fluctuations, it is a favorable trend for the CAQ, and present for months, which is confirmed.
It should be noted that a score of 44% for a party called to take power in Quebec is not the exception. This percentage of votes is the same obtained by Jacques Parizeau in 1994 and Lucien Bouchard in 1998. Jean Charest received 46% of the votes in 2003 and 42% in 2008. With 37% of the votes in 2007, he had to resign himself to leading a minority government.
What is particular in the current context is the number of opposition parties that must be taken into account, and their relative equality. The PLQ garners 18% of support, but only 10% among Francophones. QS is treading water with 15% of voting intentions. The PCQ gets 13%, while the Parti Québécois floats at 10%. Its leader, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, is not seen by the vast majority of PQ sympathizers as the one who would make the best prime minister. Dominique Anglade has a similar problem, but less pronounced: half of the Liberal respondents do not consider her the best for the job.
An election campaign, however, is an opportunity for the leaders of the opposition parties to make themselves better known, to assert themselves, to present their ideas. After the pandemic, it will not be refused.
For his part, François Legault will not want to dwell on questions of identity, or even on any constitutional claims. He intends to stick to very concrete issues, such as inflation and the reform of the health care system, to which must be added the economic challenges presented by the fight against climate change. To use a hockey expression, the CAQ can afford to play the trap.
Obviously, an election campaign is made up of unforeseen events and clumsy statements can be made. But it would take a monumental blunder for a wave to push one or the other of the oppositions to become a real threat to the party in power. Due to the dispersion of the votes, the possibility that they have of electing a large number of deputies is reduced. What characterizes the position on the starting line is less the strength of the CAQ than the weakness of the opposition parties.