The plan to reduce GHG emissions unveiled Monday by the government of Justin Trudeau is not crossed by the audacity expected to ensure a spectacular trend reversal. But attentive observers, even worn down by three decades of disappointment and expectation, will want to see in it the beginning of a certain political courage. It must be recognized in this plan that it contains the skeleton which could—finally! — giving form to action.
To want to believe in it: it is towards this position of realistic fallback that we take refuge after reading the GHG emissions reduction plan for 2030. It provides for differentiated targets based on the different GHG-emitting sectors and comes with an envelope of $9.1 billion. To achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, the Liberals are betting in particular on the electrification of road transport and on carbon capture and storage technologies. But a history of columnless promises and diktats from lobbies has ended up hardening the muscle of cynicism. Here we are suspicious of all these plans blowing winds of refoundation and renewal: it is in the execution that the leaders will be judged.
This plan bears the signature of a former environmentalist, whose expertise and enthusiasm cannot be doubted. In his politician’s garb, the Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, however, has to juggle a set of factors, and it is no accident that the title of his plan calls from the outset for stages ” for clean air and a strong economy”.
It is generally by trying to reconcile economic issues with decarbonization objectives that the courage and audacity of politicians take their toll. In this plan, the oil and gas industry is given a target to reduce emissions by 31% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels – against an overall target of 40%. Optimists see it as the beginning of a firm commitment; the pessimists are pawing the way, because they deem this insufficient. Impatience undoubtedly boosts expectations, but the fact remains that catching up must remain realistic.
In 2019, the oil and gas economic sector was responsible for 26% of all GHG emissions in Canada. Since 2005, this sector has continued to increase its emissions. The International Energy Agency has just revealed that GHG emissions reached a world record level in 2021. This dependence on fossil fuels is not diminishing, and an increase in the use of oil is even expected.
Canada is not the worst dunce on the planet, but it is not immune to this addiction. From the first pulsations of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, we saw the oil importing and exporting markets agitated, some to find new sources, some to increase the flow of production. Canada, especially in the West, is suffering from this development frenzy for new expansion and development projects, but these short-sighted ambitions are not compatible with a national decarbonization plan. In addition to a cap on GHG emissions by sector, consideration should also be given to capping production flows.
Until now, the Liberals have been accused of indolence and inconsistency in the fight against climate change — we will not soon forget an environmental incongruity called the acquisition of the Trans Mountain pipeline, the bill for which now rises to 21.4 billion. For Minister Steven Guilbeault, the test of consistency will coincide with his long-awaited decision on the fate of Norway’s Bay du Nord oil project, which aims to extract up to a billion barrels of oil off the coast of Newfoundland and -Labrador. His latest statements suggest that this project is suffering, but the final decision has not been made.
Among other signals of consistency to which we can cling, there is this promise by Canada not only to eliminate by the end of 2022 the international public financing granted to fossil energy producers, but also to bring forward to 2023 its commitment made before the G20 to also end the subsidies granted to this industry on Canadian soil. Canada sits at the top of the G20 countries for its financial support to these producers, and this manna paid out became indecent.
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently warned that the viable future of humanity is already seriously jeopardized by global warming caused by fossil fuels. We’re living on borrowed time, and so our hopes lie in the promise this plan holds to make concrete targets that, until now, have been floating haphazardly in the stale air. After having believed in it, we will be attentive to actions.