We knew it, but suddenly, two reports focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have reaffirmed the salutary effect that the shutdown of activities due to the pandemic has had on the planet. . The COVID effect can be seen very clearly in the glorious results posted by Quebec and Canada in terms of climate management. Beware of this mirage effect which could give good political conscience at a pivotal moment, when climate actions must be sustained, vigorous and courageous.
The latest progress report submitted by Canada to the United Nations (in English only, in its full 580-page version) on the last day of December contains good news, that is undeniable. It concludes, among other things, that in 2020, Canada emitted 672 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2compared to 738 the previous year, a decrease of 9% and a return to the level of 1996 emissions. But this freeze frame hides the fact that the two main polluting sectors in Canada, responsible for 80% of GHG emissions, i.e. the oil and gas industry and transport, did not experience a significant decline before the COVID-imposed respite, quite the contrary.
The oil and gas sectors, the real Achilles’ heel of the Trudeau government, saw their GHG emissions increase by 101 Mt between 1990 and 2019, with an unexpected drop – a real breath of fresh air – of 25 Mt in the space of a year. But it is the rise of the last two decades that clearly marks the trend to remember, despite the brightening offered by COVID. It is attributable to an increase in oil sands production and the consequent increase in GHG emissions.
In transport, the curve follows the same route. Between 2005 and 2019, emissions from this sector increased by 15%, due to a notable proliferation of vehicles on the road and the popularity of sport utility vehicles (SUVs). Containment measures extended across Canada have caused emissions to fall by 14% in a single year, but the underlying trend suggests that the 2021 results will soar. The bus, metro and bicycle have not supplanted the automobile.
In Quebec, the Minister of the Environment, Benoit Charette, laid the cards on the table by presenting an encouraging climate assessment at the end of December, with emissions falling by 26.6% compared to 1990 levels, a score more ambitious than the most optimistic forecasts. “COVID is distorting the situation: we are not proud,” said Minister Charette, clairvoyant. “We are well aware that there is a pandemic effect. » An annoying pandemic effect, which blurs the cards and prevents the exact effect of the measures put in place to reduce GHGs from being pinpointed.
This trend can be observed everywhere on the globe and it distorts the indicators at a time when, as the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) eloquently proclaimed, nations must propose changes in vigorous course that will make it possible to reach the reduction targets that are essential to avoid irrecoverable warming on the planet.
However, in the two most polluting sectors, we feel that tackling the task is more difficult, and this, despite notable overall efforts. In Quebec, pollution from transportation is the greatest — 42.8% of emissions in 2020, down just two percentage points from 2019, despite the pandemic. It could in particular be attributable to the galloping popularity of SUVs and other light trucks dear to the hearts of Quebecers. The government of François Legault believes that Quebec is not ready to impose penalties on users of these more polluting cars in one form or another as long as the electric alternative option is not as accessible. In terms of efforts to be applauded, let’s highlight the online publication of the Quebec government’s Climate Action Dashboard, an effort of transparency that will make it possible to verify whether the promises will be carried out.
In Canada, the most glaring inconsistencies remain in the oil and gas field, where decisions taken by Justin Trudeau’s government in recent years endorse an increase in oil production in the country, think only of the acquisition of the Trans Mountain pipeline or the green light given in 2022 to the Bay du Nord oil megaproject, off the coast of Newfoundland. These decisions, contrary to common environmental sense, detract from the luster of the overall plan. The plan to reduce GHG emissions by 2030 provides for an increase in oil production of more than 20% by the end of the decade, which unequivocally reflects a dependency that will be difficult to contain. The COVID effect will have been short-lived.