An optimistic lesson from the midterm elections is that Donald Trump carries a virus that a telling proportion of Americans do not want to be infected with. Easy to forget, given the curse that the Trumpist nebula weighs on American democracy. In the immediate future, the legislative elections on Tuesday will in any case have undermined a certain number of presuppositions, starting with the idea that a massive rally was taking shape, to the advantage of the Republicans, around the theme of inflation. and that as a result, the defense of democracy and the right to abortion was not going to be enough to mobilize the democratic base. The referendums held on the sidelines of the elections in California, Michigan and Vermont are noteworthy in this regard: a majority of voters in these three states have chosen to amend their Constitution to include the right to abortion.
With the result that the Republicans, some of whom predicted a Democratic “bloodbath” in Congress, were well on their way to winning back the House of Representatives, but by only a few seats, while in the Senate, again divided by the middle, nothing was settled on Wednesday, given the close struggles in Nevada and Arizona, and the holding in Georgia, as in 2020, of a second round next month. A performance, therefore, that looks like a defeat for Mr. Trump and his Republicans, insofar as the midterm elections are generally an opportunity to punish the ruling party more clearly. We wanted to believe that Joe Biden’s unpopularity and his lack of vitality were going to drag the Democrats down: these elections say that was not the case.
The democratic norm that Joe Biden defends is, like him, fragile. And if American democracy is sick today, it is because, for a long time, it has been a great disappointment. Because, beyond the cultural insecurity of whites, abundantly exploited by the right, the deterioration of democratic life and the rise of authoritarian reaction in the United States also have to do with the erosion of the standard of living of Americans. of modest and middle income for 50 years. A problem for which the Democrats, losing sight of the common interest, are largely responsible.
Give honour where honour is due. Mr. Biden, whose polls reflect the image of an unreliable president on economic issues, has nevertheless succeeded for two years, despite his slim majority in Congress, in laying the groundwork for important reform policies: recovery plan US$1.9 trillion post-pandemic law, infrastructure law (US$1.2 trillion), semiconductor production law (200 billion over five years), “reduction of inflation” law, with unprecedented support for development green technologies… not to mention this bipartisan breakthrough made in June in relation to gun control. Policies which, all things considered, are so many legislative exploits, given the context of extreme partisanship that is that of Congress. These advances partly guided the choice of voters and favored the Democratic candidates.
The glass is half empty, of course. The Republican Party has far from always been well served by candidates endorsed by Trump. Where it would sometimes have been more profitable for the party to present more conventional candidates, Trump imposed candidates of poor quality, supported by the ex-president for the sole reason that they endorsed the thesis of the “stolen election” in 2020. This is evidenced in particular, in an exemplary way, by the crushing defeat of a dangerous right-wing extremist like Doug Mastriano, directly involved in the January 6 insurrection, as governor of Pennsylvania.
However, does Trump emerge weakened from the exercise? Yes and no. Failing to be able to boast of a “red wave” in Congress, the fact remains that of the 291 “denying” candidates he dubbed, more than 150 were elected, according to the washington post. So many little Mastrianos, some of whom were elected secretaries of state (and therefore responsible for the elections), as in Ohio and Nevada. So many accomplices of the “big lie” who will also form an important bloc in the House, likely, on the one hand, to legislatively handcuff Mr. Biden for the next two years and, on the other hand, to influence the certification of the presidential result of 2024.
We repeat: is Trump coming out of the exercise weakened? Yes, for a reason called Ron DeSantis, governor re-elected Tuesday night with a 20-point lead in Florida. Trumpist before his time, but polished Trumpist, hero of the opposition to anti-COVID restrictions, DeSantis becomes, by his undeniable election, the great potential rival of the ex-president for the Republican nomination. Trump has already started taunting him, worried about his throne.