There was a time when the irreverent Donald Trump made people cringe when he openly criticized NATO’s usually supportive partners. The war that has been raging on their doorstep for almost a year and a half has, however, shaken the standards of politeness of the North Atlantic alliance. The United States is no longer alone in saying out loud that some allies are no longer making enough of an effort. On the contrary, the most incisive reproaches now even come from elsewhere. In the dock, Canada continues to prove them right.
At the back of the pack in the table of financial contributions, Ottawa has hammered so far that, on the other hand, its army is present at every opportunity. However, even in this regard, Canada can no longer support its allies. Lacking manpower and claiming to be in a period of “transition”, the Royal Air Force abstained from participating last month in the largest air exercise in NATO history. Twenty-three partners, accompanied by Sweden and Japan, met to coordinate their air forces in the absence of Canada, yet one of the founding members of the alliance. Nor did the Canadian military join an Arctic military exercise in Finland. Much of the equipment promised to Ukraine is still pending, as are the reinforcements promised in Latvia to swell the Canadian contingent there. Soldiers even had to procure helmets and equipment themselves.
Is it really any wonder that Canada finds itself excluded from subgroups within NATO or even new alliances such as AUKUS, the military cooperation agreement between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom? United ? The partners are not fooled and see that Canada is simply no longer a trusted and influential ally. In view of our assessment of the last few months, we understand them.
The French Ambassador to Canada, Michel Miraillet, allowed himself to deplore before CORIM in April that “Canada is deploying a weak defense effort”, that it “forgets a little about its past commitments” and the “courage with which it has demonstrated in all major conflicts.
“If we spent all our 2% [cible de dépenses militaires de l’OTAN par rapport au PIB]we would be in a better position to deter Russia and any other adversary,” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace judiciously summed up alongside his Canadian counterpart, Anita Anand, who was in London in June.
This 2% target – which Canada will not reach, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to confess to his allies – will nevertheless become a “floor” and no longer a simple “ceiling”, warned the secretary general of the alliance. , Jens Stoltenberg, ahead of this week’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Canada is also not meeting the other NATO objective, which is that 20% of this envelope be devoted to the purchase and maintenance of military equipment. If it were just a matter of accounting calculations, perhaps Canada could be forgiven. But the expectation or lack of his contributions on the pitch cannot be ignored. Beyond the front in Europe, the case of Haiti — where Canada’s hesitation is not only political, but also stems from a lack of military capabilities — is another eloquent demonstration of this.
While Canada is treading water, countries in Europe, on the other hand, spent record sums on defense last year. Unheard of since the end of the Cold War. The Baltic countries, for which the threat from the Russian neighbor is even more real, even exceeded the share of their GDP invested in defense 30 years ago. That of Canada, meanwhile, has declined (2% in 1990, 1.2% last year).
It is true that the Canadian army suffers from chronic underfunding ignored by all governments for three decades. Such a delay was inevitably going to be difficult to make up for. The sums reinvested over the past six years (for the new version of the defense policy, the modernization of NORAD or the purchase of new fighter planes) are however spread over several years. Yet another source of discontent for the allied countries, annoyed to wait for these investments too long.
By dint of delaying in reassuring them, Canada is losing credibility and cannot claim to exert its influence in the world, even if it publishes great diplomatic strategies. At the Vilnius Summit, the partners will not only discuss the war in Ukraine, but also Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic as well as the rise of China. It would be worrisome if Canada finds itself increasingly ostracized from the nerve center of international alliances, while these are discussing growing threats to its own security.