Economy Minister resigns | Who can replace Fitzgibbon?

His departure was expected, but not so soon. Pierre Fitzgibbon’s resignation is half a surprise. Rumor had it that he would leave after adopting his energy reform, his political legacy.

His exit from the track was expected for December. The Minister of Energy will finally be content to submit his bill. The study will be done without him.

About two weeks ago, Mr. Legault asked Mr. Fitzgibbon to move up his decision. The government’s strategy could not be tied to its star minister’s schedule, and the fall was deemed more propitious for his departure. The announcement was to be made this Wednesday to the members of Parliament gathered in caucus.

At the end of the parliamentary session in June, François Legault’s entourage was nevertheless clear: there would be no reshuffle. This exercise rarely has a significant and lasting effect on voting intentions. It serves to resolve a problem of governance and not of image, it was argued. No important minister was considered bad enough to justify it. But the rumour of Mr. Fitzgibbon’s departure was becoming a distraction.

Dubbed a “super minister,” he was responsible for both Energy and Economic Development. A government heavyweight will have to replace him. Which will lead to an inevitable game of musical chairs. But who?

Sonia LeBel is already leading heated negotiations with nurses, Christian Dubé is doing the same thing with doctors while landing his health reform, and Bernard Drainville is imitating him with his own education reform.

Geneviève Guilbault and Simon Jolin-Barrette? They have no experience in economics.

Will we dare to send Mr. Dubé to the Economy and replace him with his delegate minister, Sonia Bélanger? Private Dubé gave the impression of wanting to finish the job before leaving politics.

Will Christine Fréchette, who stands out in Immigration and has experience in economic issues, be sent? That would leave her less than a month before preparing to study the bill. But Jean Boulet will be able to replace her at Immigration, a department he has already managed.

Another possibility: the Minister of Agriculture, André Lamontagne, is an entrepreneur and corporate director, and he is said to be loyal to Mr. Legault. At Economic Development, he would not be far from his comfort zone.

In short, no scenario is self-evident.

In order not to destabilize the government too much, the simplest thing would be to split Energy and Economic Development again. This would allow a less experienced person to be appointed to one of its functions.

Mr. Legault will have to ask himself who has the stature and motivation to take on a new challenge, and who would rather settle their files before changing careers.

No matter who replaces him, one thing seems certain: the Prime Minister’s Office will have increased control over the Energy Ministry, and the power of Hydro-Québec CEO Michael Sabia will also increase.

The tone will also change. Mr. Fitzgibbon had an atypical freedom of speech. His career in the private sector commanded respect internally, and his friendship with the Prime Minister also provided him with protection. Mr. Legault did not want to frustrate his star player, whose departure he knew was always possible. But his patience still had its limits.

The Prime Minister’s office must not have been jubilant last week when Mr. Fitzgibbon mentioned a long-term increase in electricity rates, while the CAQ refuses to exceed inflation.

The news does not only shake the CAQ government. It announces the beginning of the second half of its mandate. It will be an era of turbulence.

The caquistes will begin what looks like the end of a cycle. Several of its pillars seem to be at the end of their career.

Will Mr. Fitzgibbon be the only one to look elsewhere? Probably not. No one expects Christian Dubé to seek another term. During the last election campaign, he already gave the impression that he was doing his boss a favour by staying, even though his family would have preferred that he not continue his grueling mandate.

In November, Mr. Fitzgibbon will be 70 years old. Mr. Dubé will reach that age during the next election campaign. François Legault will be 69 years old. This age is obviously not an obstacle. The issue is rather motivation – will he want to enjoy life differently?

When he returned to politics in 2012, Mr. Legault promised to stay in politics for at least 10 years. Will he seek a third term? The CAQ leader has already said that if his health allows it, and if the population still wants him, he will try his luck.

The condition of popular support is just vague enough to give him the latitude to decide. But in this matter, the rule is known: a prime minister never mentions his departure, so as not to become a lame duck.

The end of the cycle will be observed in other positions. In Finance, if Eric Girard keeps his functions until the end of the mandate, he will have been Minister of Finance for eight years, which will equal, to the nearest few weeks, the record held by Gérard D. Lévesque and Jacques Parizeau. He has already made known his interest in the role of (Conservative) Minister of Finance of Canada, which does not seem to interest Pierre Poilievre. What ministry would interest this banker enough to continue to travel back and forth between Quebec City and Montreal?

Stability is also remarkable in other ministries. At Municipal Affairs, Andrée Laforest has been in office since 2018. If she completes her term, her longevity will be the greatest since Louis-Alexandre Taschereau. At Agriculture, André Lamontagne has also been in charge since the 2018 election. No one since Jean Garon, a notable minister, has lasted so long. At Labour, Jean Boulet has the same longevity, and he has been one of the best players on his team since the beginning of the year.

In the environment, Benoit Charette has also been there for just as long, but he appears happy in politics and ready to serve elsewhere.

Last spring, Éric Lefebvre caused a commotion on Parliament Hill by announcing his candidacy for the Conservatives. He was ejected from the CAQ caucus. Even if the federal election could inspire future deserters, the appeal of municipal politics is likely to be stronger. MNAs exhausted by travel or frightened by the polls could run for their local mayor. The end of the severance pay has, however, made this scenario more financially risky.

The end of the CAQ mandate will take place in a context of budgetary tightening, a delicate context for implementing the reforms launched in education and health. And with the game of musical chairs that is coming, it will be even more difficult than expected.