The meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Poutine, Thursday September 15, at the time of the regional summit which begins in Uzbekistan is “an occasion” for the Russian President “to show that he is not alone”, explains Frédéric Charillon, professor of international relations at Essec and Sciences Po, this Thursday on franceinfo. According to him, Russia “is above all an embarrassment for Beijing”a necessary economic partner, coupled with an associate “which is losing ground”.
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franceinfo: What is the point of this summit?
Frédéric Charillon, professor of international relations: Clearly, for Vladimir Putin, this is an attempt to show that he is not alone. This is the message he is trying to sell, including internally to his own population, because for the moment things do not seem to be going very well for Russia. In Ukraine, the Kremlin expected something faster, more efficient and more successful. But, militarily, things are not going well. Economically, the sanctions, even if the Russian economy seems to be resisting, will in the medium term do considerable damage. Then it’s about saying “we are not alone, no, the West has not isolated us”.
But this summit is not there to show support for Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine?
No, but this top is good. Indeed, it is an organization that has existed for a long time. This summit is not convened for this occasion between countries which have decided to support Moscow. It’s not about that. But this remains an opportunity that Vladimir Putin can try to seize to show that he is not alone.
How do you qualify relations between China and Russia, is it more of a partner than an ally?
It is above all an embarrassment for Beijing. A partner, that’s for sure, but the transition to ally status is more complicated, because there was Ukraine. One can imagine that if, in fact, the Russian adventure had gone better with immediate success, it would have been different. China engaged quite strongly with a partner that it supported just before the invasion of Ukraine, that it supported strongly and publicly. But, today, she finds herself not linked but associated with someone who is losing ground.
Does Beijing still have an interest in maintaining such strong relations with Russia?
Beijing has an interest in maintaining excellent relations with Russia because there is a very strong economic opportunity to be seized. But getting really angry with Washington is another matter. To associate completely with Vladimir Putin, to the point of breaking ties with the West, would not be a good calculation. Chinese foreign policy has always been very cautious. It’s a foreign policy that doesn’t make many mistakes, nor does it take many risks. We have rarely seen China become strongly involved in international issues. Rather, it is a prudent policy. Today we find this caution coupled with an embarrassment. I believe that today Beijing is waiting to see. Except that time passes and this conflict lasts.