Many wouldn’t have bet $20 on it last May, and I was one, but the four-headed dragon who took over the “REM de l’Est” has done a tremendous job over the past nine month.
For those who would have spent the last year under a rock, this automated light rail project was first proposed in 2020 by a subsidiary of the Caisse de depot to connect downtown Montreal to the east and north- east of the island.
The 32 kilometer network, planned largely on aerial concrete structures, has raised a ton of controversy in several neighborhoods. Faced with its flagrant lack of “social acceptability”, the Legault government withdrew the project from the Caisse to entrust it to the public sector.
Get ready for an avalanche of acronyms here.
A group formed by the Autorité régionale de transport métropolitain (ARTM), the Société de transport de Montréal (STM), the Ministère des Transports du Québec (MTQ) and the City of Montreal took over the file in May 2022.
This quartet does not immediately smack of efficiency, but the progress report it will present later this week proposes to resolve several of the major irritants that plagued the initial project.
Basically, the group suggests creating more links with the already existing transport network, according to several of my sources.
This includes one or two connections with the metro’s green line, another with the blue line and another potential with the train de l’Est, at the current Saint-Léonard–Montréal-Nord station, at the corner of boulevard Lacordaire.
The idea, in short, would be to rely more on the infrastructures already in place, rather than to create a parallel network.
To focus on complementarity rather than competition.
In its analysis, the task force also takes into account an increase in the capacity of the green line. It also plans to increase the service offer on the Eastern train, operated by exo, whose survival seemed threatened by the initial version of the project.
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The Minister of Transport, Geneviève Guilbault, confirmed Monday that the most problematic portion of the route, in Mercier-Est, will no longer be erected on aerial concrete structures.
IMAGE PROVIDED BY THE REGIONAL METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT AUTHORITY
A map of the “reference” version of the new version of the REM de l’Est, published in the fall of 2022 by the ARTM. The various scenarios considered, including extensions to Rivière-des-Prairies, Laval and Lanaudière, do not appear there.
Two tunnel options of approximately 8 kilometers are being studied for the central portion, roughly the one that crosses from east to west the residential neighborhoods around Highway 25. One of the scenarios proposes to pass under the street Hochelaga, with a connection to the Assomption station on the green line. The other would pass under Sherbrooke Street East, with a second link at the Honoré-Beaugrand station.
The easternmost portion of the route, in the more industrial sector of Montreal East, is still planned on an aerial structure. The “north” branch of the project, which roughly passes under Boulevard Lacordaire, was and remains planned underground.
One of the promising proposals of the new version is the proposed extension of this branch to Rivière-des-Prairies, after Cégep Marie-Victorin, in the northeast of the island. The addition of two stations in this neighborhood would increase ridership by 20%, according to current forecasts, which is considerable.
Extensions to Lanaudière (either to Repentigny or Mascouche) and to Laval are also being studied, at the request of the Legault government. However, these extensions remain at a very embryonic stage and will require in-depth analyses.
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Now the question on everyone’s lips: how much could this wonder cost?
The answer: we have absolutely no idea.
The initial version presented by the Caisse, which included a direct link to downtown but did not target Laval or Lanaudière, was valued at $10 billion.
The task force mandated by Quebec to relaunch the Eastern REM – which now bears the name “Structuring Project of the East” – still has a mountain of work ahead of it.
He will have to analyze the soils in Mercier-Est, where the digging of a tunnel will undoubtedly be calculated in billions. Also study the many technical obstacles – such as crossing the Rivière des Prairies – that an extension to the suburbs would entail.
The amount could be astronomical, even if the portion towards the city center has been abandoned. It will also be necessary to determine whether the expected traffic – around 19,000 passengers at peak times for the 23-kilometre base project – will justify the bill.
The reduction in travel time expected for future users, less than ten minutes on average compared to the current situation, may also seem quite low depending on the billions that the project will cost.
The group predicts a “modal transfer” of 19% of users, the proportion of people who would abandon their car to jump into the new light rail. This is more than the 17% that was provided for in the version of the Caisse, but we will have to see what methodology was used.
The governance of the project will also have to be clarified, and this will even be crucial to its success. According to my information, it is not yet clear at this stage who, between the ARTM, the STM, the MTQ or the City, will play the role of conductor. It will take a clear line of command, which has not always been obvious in recent years in public transit in Montreal.
What is reassuring is that everyone can row in the same direction. We saw it no later than in 2021, when the Legault government created a special committee which succeeded in subtracting more than a billion from the galloping bill for the extension of the blue line in the space of a few months. It’s essentially the same group working on the East project.
Quebec, the main funder, will ultimately decide the fate of the project when a preliminary cost analysis is unveiled.
The number of zeros at the end of the invoice will be proof of everything.