Eastern REM | CDPQ Infra raises its forecasts by 34%

CDPQ Infra now expects to welcome 178,000 passengers per day in its Eastern Metropolitan Express Network (REM) by 2046, a sharp increase from its initial forecast of 133,000 daily users.

The subsidiary of the Caisse de depot et placement du Québec presented to The Press an update on its $10 billion project on Friday, days after a devastating report by the Autorité régionale de transport métropolitain (ARTM) leaked.

The 34% increase in the number of expected passengers can be explained by several factors, said spokesperson Jean-Vincent Lacroix. Among these: the increase in train speed which will make the REM more “attractive” and the relocation of two stations in Montreal North to “much more strategic” locations.

The subsidiary of the Caisse de depot also refined its analysis by using data from a more recent “origin-destination” survey than the one it had used initially, explains Mr. Lacroix. However, he points out that the target of 178,000 passengers will continue to “fluctuate” between now and the filing of a final version of the project.

A difference of 300%

The Press revealed on Tuesday the existence of a damning 84-page report prepared by the ARTM, the organization responsible for planning all public transit in Greater Montreal. In its opinion for the Government of Quebec, the Authority questions the merits of the future 32-kilometre automated train network, which must connect the city center to the eastern tip and northeast of the island.

Among the striking elements of the report, the ARTM points out that the project announced in December 2020 “would only attract 2,100 motorists to public transit, or 6% of REM de l’Est ridership”.

CDPQ Infra offers a very different analysis. Instead, the group predicts that 7,850 motorists will abandon their vehicles in favor of the REM de l’Est, which would represent 17% of total users during the morning rush hour.

“Making 17% modal shift, I don’t know many projects that do that,” said Denis Andlauer, Senior Director, Transportation Strategies, CDPQ Infra.

According to the group’s forecasts, 6,000 motorists will completely abandon their car to board the Eastern REM, while 1,850 others will be “bimodal” users (auto and REM), for a total of 7,850.

According to Mr. Andlauer, the 300% difference observed with the ARTM forecasts stems from the use of more recent modeling tools by CDPQ Infra, which relies, among other things, on artificial intelligence. The ARTM model does not take into account the time that motorists spend in their car to get around, he adds, a data considered fundamental that influences their decision to opt for public transit.

In Lyon, where Mr. Andlauer oversaw the implementation of an automated train line in the late 1990s, the modal shift rate had reached 12%, he says, which was considered good at the time. . CDPQ Infra also anticipates a “modal transfer” rate of 15% for the first phase of the REM, a 67-kilometre system whose branch on the South Shore will be inaugurated next fall.

“Redundancy” between networks

The subsidiary of the Caisse also tried to respond to the virulent criticism of the ARTM on the “redundancy” that the REM de l’Est will cause with the existing networks. The ARTM estimates, for example, that 15,000 passengers on the metro’s green line will switch to the Caisse train.

A confidential note from the Société de transport de Montréal (STM) obtained by The Press also evokes a risk of cannibalization between the two modes of transport. The STM deplores the fact that CDPQ Infra refused to consider connecting its REM de l’Est to the Honoré-Beaugrand station, rather than going downtown.

This solution would be impractical, says Denis Andlauer.

Mr. Andlauer believes that the construction of the REM de l’Est will instead give “oxygen” to an existing network that is approaching saturation.

CDPQ Infra does not seem to be too worried about the drop in attendance that will result from the pandemic. The group foresees a decline of about 13% in the number of passengers (which does not appear in its current forecasts) and an increase of about 1% per year.

“Biased” elements

Denis Andlauer finds it “a pity” the publication of certain “partial” or “biased” elements by the ARTM. In its report, the Authority points out, for example, that only 12% of travel needs in the East are aimed at the city centre.

However, it should be added to this that 27% of users from the East also travel to the “center” of the island, a territory that CDPQ Infra will serve with the northern branch of the REM de l’Est, says Mr. Andlauer .

Despite the storm caused by the leak of the ARTM report, CDPQ Infra considers the organization to be a “permanent partner”. Denis Andlauer did not want to enter into a “political debate”, after several days of vitriolic exchanges about the Eastern REM in the Blue Room of the National Assembly.

It remains that the file is far from being settled. An independent committee of experts is due to submit a report within a few weeks on the architectural integration of the REM de l’Est, whose tall structures are arousing great controversy. The project will then have to be studied by the Bureau d’audiences publiques sur l’environnement in the spring.

CDPQ Infra will also have to finalize its traffic studies and agree with the ARTM on a tariff framework, as the subsidiary did for the first phase of the REM. If all these steps are completed, the group, which will build, finance and operate the network, hopes to be commissioned in 2029.

Legault makes Plante an offer

Prime Minister François Legault has made an offer to Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante in the hope of obtaining her clear and firm support for the REM de l’Est, has learned The Press.

He suggests that he create a “working group” bringing together the City, the government and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) to “discuss possible improvements to the current route and the project as a whole”.

Over the past few days, Valérie Plante has insisted that the creation of a joint committee with the Caisse was a “winning condition” for the project to receive her support. “We have to be around the decision-making table. I’m not talking about the color of the brick, I’m not talking about what artwork you put where, I’m not talking about landscaping. “It’s about having a voice with regard to the route and urban integration, she said Thursday. She regretted that her office had been informed the day before of a “major” route change announced last month (a 4.5 km section moved from Sherbrooke Street East to Souligny Avenue). She does not want another “advisory” committee; it calls for a “decision-making” committee.

François Legault has put on the table the creation of a “working group” in an attempt to grant the wish of the mayor. Discussions have started on the subject. The prime minister was expecting a response from the mayor on Friday afternoon.

While the form and mandate of the working group “are not final” at this stage, “it is clear that we want the City of Montreal to be satisfied with the project as a whole and to be able to take an active part in the discussions surrounding the project, with the government and CDPQ Infra”, the subsidiary of the Caisse responsible for the file, she added. François Legault has promised the presentation of a “beautiful adjusted project” in the coming months.

change of tone

The prime minister has changed his tone with the mayor over the past two days. Following the headline of The Press of Tuesday on the devastating opinion of the Regional Metropolitan Transport Authority, he had said Tuesday that “the ball [était] in the camp of M^me Plant. [À elle] to come up with a new project that suits him”. He left the fate of the project in his hands. The mayor had deplored that she was thus “backed up against the wall”, especially since CDPQ Infra asked her to support the project, failing which she will abandon it.

François Legault has since sought to ease tensions, fueled by the scathing outings of his Minister Delegate for Transport, Chantal Rouleau, against the ARTM and the STM.

Thursday, he confirmed that the government was ready to finance part of the development of the surroundings of the REM route, significant sums which would be added to the 500 million promised by Valérie Plante. The mayor estimated the work at $1 billion in total. She said she was reassured by the financial commitments of Quebec, she who had made it another condition to support the project.

His cabinet did not want to react to Mr. Legault’s offer to create a working group. “We welcome the openness of the government, discussions are currently underway with the Government of Quebec regarding governance,” said Marikym Gaudreault, press officer for Mayor Valérie Plante.

With the collaboration of Philippe Teisceira-Lessard, The Press