What caused the report leak? Tensions, of course, in particular a battle of unusual data on the future ridership of the REM de l’Est. But also, perhaps, a certain desire for rapprochement between the parties.
Posted at 6:30 a.m.
On Friday, the Caisse de depot et placement toured the media to calm apprehensions and present its own ridership figures, which are much more favorable to the project. Unusual figures, for the most part.
In the report released in The Press, the Autorité métropolitaine de transport métropolitain (ARTM) maintains that the REM de l’Est would attract few new users. According to her, only 2,100 motorists would leave their cars during the morning rush hour, or 6% of all users. Most of the ridership (94%) would come from cannibalizing the current network (green line and Mascouche line).
However, the Caisse arrives at a completely different result, with what it claims to be a more refined evaluation method. According to its expert, it is rather 7,850 motorists who would opt for the REM de l’Est during the morning rush hour, almost four times more.
These new passengers would not represent 6% of the total, as the ARTM thinks, but 17%. This figure of 17% may still seem low, but the Caisse’s expert considers it very high, compared to those of other projects of the same type, often less than 15%, as my colleague Maxime Bergeron explains (see previous screen).
And in the end, 178,000 people would board daily once the project matures in 2046, data that does not yet take into account the impact of COVID-19 on telework. The pandemic, according to the Caisse, could reduce ridership, but also move passengers off the peak, which is desirable.
Who is telling the truth? We will have to see. One thing is certain, the various parties would benefit from being much more transparent and collaborating if they want the best for public transit in the region.
On Friday, for example, it was revealed that Mayor Valérie Plante had not been made aware of these new figures from the Caisse before the media became aware of them. The data is not yet official, it must be said, and it could vary quite a bit depending on the progress of the project.
“We wanted to quickly go into the public space to discuss the data published by the ARTM, considering that these are heavy findings that have a major impact on the perception of the project”, explains the spokesperson for CDPQ Infra, Jean -Vincent Lacroix.
And on Wednesday, I was able to learn, the 15 members of the ARTM board of directors saw the conclusions of their organization’s report for the first time, either after the leak in The Press, with the exception of the Chairman of the Board, Pierre Shedleur. This was the case for Valérie Plante, Catherine Fournier (mayor of Longueuil) and Stéphane Boyer (mayor of Laval), among others.
Be that as it may, the members of the ARTM Board agreed, during this meeting, on the need to re-establish ties with the Caisse de dépôt. Everyone recognizes that a structuring mode of transport is needed for this sector of the island. Nevertheless, they are wondering how to learn from their organization’s report, and would like the Caisse and the ARTM to better share their know-how to improve the project.
There remains the financial aspect, which remains a mystery, and which the Caisse will specify when all the parameters of the project have been specified (route, physical layout, traffic, etc.). The ARTM report estimates the annual bill at at least 260 million, of which 98 million would be claimed from the municipalities.
Council members note that these are very conservative cost forecasts, based on the parameters of the West REM (72 cents per passenger-kilometre). Nevertheless, they consider such a bill too heavy.
To make the operation profitable, it should be remembered, the Caisse bases itself on the number of users, but also on the distance they travel, as expressed by the rate per passenger-kilometre. A passenger-kilometre translates the journey of a passenger over one kilometre.
However, although the number of passengers on the two networks would end up being similar, according to new data put forward by the Caisse on Friday (178,000 for the East and 174,000 for the other), the number of kilometers traveled by those on the REM from the east will likely be much less.
The proposed Eastern REM is half as long as the other (67 km compared to 32 km), while being more expensive (10 billion compared to approximately 7 billion).
In short, the parties will have to absorb a heavier annual bill, whether it be the municipalities, the Caisse or, more likely, the Quebec government. And we haven’t yet talked about the improvements to make aerial structures acceptable…
Undoubtedly, you will have to find original solutions and sharpen your pencils. Let’s not be in such a hurry, please.