The question arose on the eve of last Monday’s elections: were the oppositions ready to govern? The answer was absolutely NO. But the new question that should haunt the strategists of all opposition parties is: will they be in four years? A clue ? The answer starts with an N.
Posted at 9:00 a.m.
Quebecers are formal: they love the CAQ, adore François Legault. The party has won 90 ridings and is often second, even in Montreal. The oppositions, like a radio poll, all proclaimed themselves winners on election night, but in fact they were already weak on the 1er October, and worse still on the 3rd. And it won’t get any better.
The PQ, despite its talented Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is still on borrowed time, threatened by the simple law of demography. QS stagnates, urbanism, even Orange Line, stuck in ideology. The PLQ is not even municipal anymore. It has become the party of Anglos and allophones of the West Island. As for the PCQ, literally outside the parliamentary precincts, it is condemned to a noisy and incredible future. He will have to fight to be heard for four years, and to build himself up, something not easy for a party based on mistrust and resentment. And will Duhaime stay?
In short, the sites of the four oppositions are titanic.
How can these parties hope to knock on the doors of power in four years? It is mathematically almost impossible in our electoral system designed for two, limit three parties.
Especially since from now on, Quebecers can and WANT to vote in a fragmented way, according to the different axes that now structure the debates and society. We are complex, in a diverse world.
François Legault cast it in stone: he will not change anything in the current voting system which serves the parties in power so well. He renounces a 2018 commitment, but hey, that only interests “intellectuals”. Although anyway, a mixed proportional would not have changed much and would create other imbalances. We will have to live with our old voting system, and at best, hope for adjustments, and wish a lot of good faith from the CAQ. But basically, the debate is over and the CAQ is there to govern for a long time (with or without François Legault), if only because the four other parties will experience crises over the next few years – of old age or adolescence – quite intense.
But above all, because Quebec feels very comfortable in its powder blue clothes. They appeal to all age groups, all shades of middle class, they are traditional and reassuring, just new enough. In Caquistan, the ideological palette does not strike the eye.
In its beautiful azure cotton sweatshirt, the CAQ will be able to claim that it is approaching its first real mandate. Since 2018, it will basically have governed little, but above all managed an unprecedented crisis, two years suspended, where normal and democratic life was in limbo; 2022 presents itself as the first real CAQ government. And Legault approaches this term much less complicated than several other Western elected officials.
He will also take advantage of the weakness of the oppositions, will sometimes concede to them, magnanimously, a few transpartisan bills. He will steer his boat, imperial, strong in numbers. There will even be pleasant surprises, because there is talent within the vast CAQ deputation.
A veritable governing machine will be deployed and administered, with strong support from all regions. The oppositions, busy surviving, condemned by the voting system to each vegetate in their own land, will inevitably find themselves in the same impasse in 2026.
They will always be low. Even with a new chief or a new chief, even tired by eight years of power, the CAQ will still be powerful. We are heading towards a pale blue dynasty.
The opposition will also have to come from elsewhere than the National Assembly, but from where? It was believed that the mayors, the new guard, younger and concerned about the environment, would be the new voice. But the cities are dependent on Quebec, and they know it. And their voters are also caquistes. The media? They face, these days, the growing mistrust of many citizens. Social networks ? Three dots.
We are at an impasse.
A triumphant, radiant impasse. Agreed, livable, democratic, and adorned with the prettiest color in the world, for the vast majority. Sky blue is there for a minimum of eight years. Contrary to what Pantone may announce, it is this very specific shade of blue that will be the color, not of the year, but of the 2020s in Quebec. Dynasty Blue.