“Marine Le Pen will be the next president. Do you really see left-wing voters going to save Emmanuel Macron in the second round when he wants to raise the retirement age to 65?” At Orly airport (Val-de-Marne), this Thursday, April 7, Jordan Bardella, all smiles, is already thinking about the second round of the presidential election. Like most executives of the National Rally, the young president of the party is preparing to embark for Perpignan (Pyrénées-Orientales), where his candidate is holding his final meeting before the first round.
On the plane, serenity is visible on all the faces of the delegation accompanying the candidate. Even the turbulence caused by the gusts of wind at take-off did not alter the enthusiasm of the right-hand men of Marine Le Pen, Sébastien Chenu and Steeve Briois. Three days before the first round, the two tenors of the National Rally consult the latest polls on their smartphones. “We are reaping today what we have sown. Marine wanted from the start of her campaign to put the package on purchasing power and she did so by traveling all over France. She went to directly with the French and today, it pays”says the RN deputy from the North.
Those close to the candidate have reason to look satisfied. For the first time since the start of the campaign, the latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer for France Télévisions places Marine Le Pen just three points behind Emmanuel Macron in the first round. In one month, the RN candidate took six points and, in the second round, facing Emmanuel Macron, she would now be credited with 46% of voting intentions, according to this same study. A sounding dynamic that did not escape its thousands of supporters gathered this Thursday evening at the Parc des expositions in Perpignan.
In this city conquered in 2020 by his former companion Louis Aliot, many residents are already won over to his cause. “Even if she was 2% in the polls, I would still vote for her. She’s the only one who understands poor people like us, those who have nothing left at the end of the month”, testifies Monique, a former sales consultant from Perpignan who receives 800 euros in retirement per month. And the few points that separate their champion from Emmanuel Macron have galvanized them even more.
In the queue, lined with flags “Marine President”, there are also all those who hesitated recently with the Eric Zemmour bulletin. This is the case of Roger and Sophie, a couple of farmers from the region, who finally chose to vote for the deputy of Pas-de-Calais. “We hesitated for a long time between the two candidates, but when we see the polls, we prefer to vote for Marine”they launch almost in chorus.
“Marine Le Pen is the only candidate to defend purchasing power and she is above all the only one who can beat Emmanuel Macron today.”
Roger and Sophie, farmers in Perpignanat franceinfo
“End with politics” of the outgoing president, it is also the wish of Hervé, plumber, who describes the results of candidate Macron with great bitterness. “I travel all over the region to intervene with my clients, but when I see the price of gasoline today, I wonder if I will be able to continue to travel. He does nothing to lower the price while Marine Le Pen has announced that she will lower the VAT on fuel to 5.5% instead of 20% today”strikes this 46-year-old father, who hopes “a great citizen mobilization” Sunday.
After devoting part of his speech to purchasing power and “his social project” what she says “to assume”, castigating “unjust politics” of the president-candidate, Marine Le Pen urged his supporters to go to the polls on Sunday.
“History cannot be written without you, especially if you have France at your heart. I urge you to go and vote. In the presidential elections, we do not abstain. people win.”
Marine Le Pen, RN presidential candidateat a meeting in Perpignan
But if the good polls today allow Marine Le Pen to foresee a qualification for the second round, can she hope to win the bet on April 24 and become President of the Republic?
For many RN executives, Marine Le Pen could count in the second round on the votes of voters from the ranks of abstainers, Eric Zemmour and perhaps Valérie Pécresse, but also from the left.
“I don’t see left-wing voters at all, and especially those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, standing up to save Macron. He is so hated by this electorate.”
Sébastien Chenu, spokesperson for Marine Le Penat franceinfo
A scenario largely nuanced by Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos. For the pollster, 20% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters could decide this time not to block the far right, against 7% in 2017. But the majority of voters of the candidate of La France insoumise, currently in third position according to the polls, could abstain or postpone a vote in favor of the Head of State. “Even if the Republican front is even more weakened than five years ago, it is certain that it will still be in place”he analyzes.
Three days from the first round and more than two weeks from the final verdict, the presidential destiny still depends on many parameters. “It is certain that if we want the planets to align, we must not make any mistakes”, a relative of the candidate is projected. “But since Emmanuel Macron is not campaigning, we have free rein to continue to roll out our proposals and convince well beyond our base”projects a relative of the candidate.