(Radisson, Quebec) In February, the United States did what it had not done in a long time: it exported more electricity to Canada than it imported. Then, in March, U.S. electricity exports to Canada increased again, to a level not seen since at least 2010.
The increase in electricity flows towards the north is worrying for North America: energy demand is increasing everywhere, but electricity production – in Canada, from giant hydroelectric dams – and the capacity of the route to demand are put to the test.
These hydroelectric plants have recently had to reduce their production due to less rain and snow; a temporary situation, many experts say. But some worry: climate change, to which the 2023 forest fires are attributed, could reduce the reliability of forecast models of rainfall and snowfall.
“You have to be humble in the face of extreme weather,” says Chris O’Riley, CEO of BC Hydro, which operates British Columbia’s hydroelectric dams. “Some years there is more water, others less. During lows, like right now, it’s normal to import, and we expect that to be the case again this year. »
The United States and Canada have long been interdependent: Canadian demand for electricity peaks in winter, with heating; the American peak occurs during the summer with air conditioning.
Canada’s abundant hydropower has been key to this trade, providing affordable renewable energy to California, Oregon, Washington, New York, and New England.
But this balance is threatened. In many states, energy demand increases sharply in both summer and winter. According to some experts, U.S. winter demand will exceed summer demand by 2050.
PHOTO RUTH FREMSON, THE NEW YORK TIMES
The James Bay complex has enabled Hydro-Québec to become one of the major suppliers to New York State and New England. But a winter with little snow has forced Hydro-Quebec and other Canadian utilities to import more American electricity.
At the same time, grids are increasingly dependent on intermittent energy sources like sun and wind. Large hydroelectric power plants in California – notably the Hoover Dam – and Canada must now deal with falling water levels.
“We’re experiencing real weather changes and their impact on hydroelectric generation is being revealed in real time, virtually across North America,” says Robert McCullough of McCullough Research in Portland, Ore., which advises the companies’ corporate clients. Canadian electricity producers since the 1980s.
Energetic transition
In addition, individuals and businesses are adopting heat pumps as well as electric cars and industrial equipment, turning away from fossil fuels. This boosts electricity demand, as does the proliferation of data centers.
The Biden administration and some states are working to build new U.S. power lines. But the United States should also add lines to Canada, experts suggest. So California’s solar farms could supply Canada when its dams are short of water and Canada could send more electricity south when water levels are high.
PHOTO RUTH FREMSON, THE NEW YORK TIMES
The Robert-Bourassa power station, built by Hydro-Québec on the Grande Rivière, is located not far from the village of Radisson.
“Most models show that a more interconnected grid is a better grid,” notes Shelley Welton, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, co-signer of a recent report on the reliability of electricity grids. “In my opinion, interconnection on a North American scale is an asset. You have to plan for various scenarios and plan for the long term. »
Surrounded by pine and spruce trees in Northern Quebec, the Robert-Bourassa hydroelectric power station embodies the promises and challenges of renewable energy production.
This power plant and its little sister La Grande-2-A, built by Hydro-Québec on the Grande Rivière, can produce more electricity than the largest power plant in the United States, the Grand Coulee Dam, on the Columbia River. , in Washington state.
PHOTO RUTH FREMSON, THE NEW YORK TIMES
One of the tunnels of the Robert-Bourassa power station, formerly known as LG-2
This James Bay complex allowed Hydro-Québec to become one of the major suppliers to New York State and New England. However, a lower-than-normal amount of snow has forced Hydro-Quebec and other Canadian utilities to import more U.S. electricity in recent months.
“Conditions seem abnormally dry,” says Gilbert Bennett, president of Water Power Canada, a non-profit organization that represents the hydroelectricity sector. “Annual variations are increasing. »
Hydro-Québec notes that there were similar periods in 2004 and 2014 and estimates that the current drought is coming to an end: its models predict an increase in precipitation of 6 to 8% in eastern Canada over the next few years. Next 25 years.
According to Serge Abergel, chief operating officer of the American subsidiary Hydro-Québec Energy Services, Canada’s recent use of American electricity has made it possible to save water at hydroelectric power stations. Modernizing and optimizing networks and adding renewable resources will allow the two countries to complement each other, he adds.
“The transition also creates opportunities, we optimize these resources,” underlines Mr. Abergel.
In general, the United States would prefer to import more electricity from Canada. It is much cheaper. Hydro-Quebec residential customers pay about $69 per 1,000 kWh of energy, Mr. Abergel said, compared to $325 in New York state and $380 on average in New England.
Hydro-Québec’s costs are low: its power stations were built and paid for a long time ago. Canadian hydroelectricity costs twice as much for individuals in Massachusetts as for residents of Quebec, according to an analysis by McCullough Research.
Hydro-Québec is building new power lines. It participates in the Champlain Hudson Power Express, which is expected to be completed in mid-2026. This US$6 billion transmission line, nearly 550 km long, will connect a substation in La Prairie to a converter station located in the Astoria district of New York. This line will be powerful enough to power more than a million New York homes.
“If we want a rapid transition, we need more transportation,” Mr. Abergel said. But “we don’t encourage anyone to find solutions, we do things piecemeal”.
According to Mr. Abergel, Hydro-Québec will fulfill all its obligations to New York and other states despite the drought, because it can preserve water by reducing the amount of electricity produced by its power plants and importing more energy of the United States. This will ensure the company will always have enough water to export energy during peak demand in New York and New England.
But some energy experts are less optimistic. Mr. McCullough says he fears that global warming will hit reservoirs hard and that it will no longer be possible to keep enough water in reserve to deal with a very long drought.
“Each episode like this makes us nervous,” he said.
This article was first published in the New York Times.
Read this text in its original version (in English; subscription required).