(St. Louis) Abundant winter rains eased the drought in the western United States, but the central part of the country is now extraordinarily dry. Crops are threatened, waterways are dry and towns and villages are anxiously hoping for a calm.
Experts say the drought in the central United States is the worst since at least 2012 and, in some areas, it is being compared to the 1988 drought that devastated corn, wheat and soybean crops. This year, although temperatures were generally mild in spring and early summer, there was a severe lack of rainfall.
The US Drought Monitor, run by the federal government and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln, reports that nearly half of Kansas is in extreme or exceptional drought conditions, the highest category of drought. More than a quarter of Nebraska is in extreme drought conditions and 13% in exceptional drought conditions. Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky are affected by arid conditions.
The frequency and intensity of droughts are increasing due to the use of fossil fuels and other human activities that release greenhouse gases, according to data from a pair of satellites used to measure changes in storage water on Earth. The study was published in March in the journal Nature Water.
Adam Hartman, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said parts of the central United States have been experiencing extreme drought since winter. In other states, “sudden droughts” have appeared in the past two or three months.
“As a result, you’re seeing drastic losses of topsoil and subsoil moisture,” Hartman said. Groundwater levels are also beginning to drop. The flow of the rivers began to decrease. »
Cultures suffer the consequences. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that only half of the corn crop is good or excellent, the lowest percentage since 1988. Nearly two-thirds of corn-growing regions are in the grip of drought.
“This tells us that these crops are under widespread stress throughout the Corn Belt region,” said Krista Swanson, an economist with the National Corn Growers Association.
If the rains do not come quickly, Mme Swanson thinks the total yield could be about 1 billion bushels lower than the original projection of 16.7 billion bushels.
This will not necessarily translate to increased costs for consumers, as much of the corn is used for animal feed, ethanol or is exported, Ms.me Swanson. The real impact is felt on the farmers.
“Their cost per hectare is the same, whatever their production, recalled Mr.me Swanson. In these years of declining production, this is a challenge for farmers. »
River water levels are falling. The level of the Mississippi ― especially from southern Illinois southeastward is extremely low in many places. It was only last fall that the river reached or approached record low water levels in several places, before rebounding in the spring to flood levels, before the final drought-fueled decline.
Farmers are not losing hope. According to Mme Swanson, the El Niño weather phenomenon that has taken hold generally means more rain and better growing conditions in the central United States.
“We could benefit from more favorable weather conditions over the next two months, which could have a positive impact,” she said.
But even with El Niño, Mme Hartman noted that the seasonal outlook for the summer months calls for below normal precipitation.
“This drought could last a bit,” she warned.