Last fall, Christian Dubé assured that the next election was not one of his concerns. We should certainly be happy that the Minister of Health is immune to such low considerations, but we would have to be naïve to imagine that no one in government works there full time.
In barely eight months, Quebec will be in the middle of an election campaign. This prospect will inevitably color all decisions that will be made in the meantime, including the management of the pandemic, more specifically the management of the response to the pandemic.
Given the very ordinary results achieved in the fight against the virus for almost two years, it is remarkable, if not astounding, that the Legault government has managed to maintain such a high level of popularity.
Since the arrival of the Omicron variant, the performance of Quebec has once again been much lower than that of Ontario, without anyone being able to explain it satisfactorily. While the neighboring province has 6 million more inhabitants and does not impose a curfew, the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is practically the same.
After a difficult period in the spring of 2021, when the Conservative Party was overtaken by the Liberals in Ontario, where the next election is scheduled for June, Doug Ford’s government regained favor with voters, and his party led by 10 points in December. A relatively comfortable lead, but not commensurate with that of 26 points with which the latest Léger poll credited the CAQ.
This difference is perhaps explained by the remarkable ability of the Legault government to blame others, be it Ottawa, the unions or the former government, which will no doubt be held responsible for a possible implosion of the network. of health.
The haunt of strategists in a government that appears to be heading for secure re-election is to see it drop the ball as it approaches the goal line, as has happened in the past.
It is clear that the last wave has a demoralizing effect, which can only generate discontent that is all the more difficult to counter as the frustration tends to become a permanent state. It will necessarily look for an outlet.
For the time being, the unvaccinated, whose irresponsibility is not sanctioned, seem called upon to play this role. There will be no party of the unvaccinated on the ballot next October, but we may want to punish the one we do not consider severe enough towards them.
Prime Minister Legault has praised the courage, the discipline and the solidarity of Quebecers on all counts, but many are starting to think that they are more of a joke.
In France, President Macron is clearly betting that “pissing off” the unvaccinated will be profitable for him in the election next April. Without necessarily saying it so bluntly, Mr. Legault should perhaps be inspired by it. We cannot say that receiving their cannabis in the mail and having their wine delivered is a very high price to pay for the risk they pose to the whole community.
Unsurprisingly, the opposition parties are calling for the National Assembly to be convened without waiting for the scheduled resumption date, the 1er February. It is always best to beat the iron while it is hot. The last few weeks have brought them new ammunition, and the Minister responsible for Seniors, Marguerite Blais, who will appear before Coroner Géhane Kamel on Friday, will provide them with more.
Of course, their request will go unheeded, but the government is losing nothing by waiting.
He already lost control in the spring of 2020, when the virus invaded CHSLDs, but a collapse of the entire health network could have even more dramatic consequences. Faced with such a catastrophe, blaming Gaétan Barrette would not be enough to allay the anger.
Even if the worst is avoided, the next few months will pass in a gloomy climate that is not conducive to an election. We cannot accuse Prime Minister Legault of having precipitated it out of calculation, as Justin Trudeau has been accused of, but it is difficult to interest the population in projects for the future when they rather have the impression of always go back to square one.
Either way, no alternative solution to the Legault government is obvious, but we generally vote less for the opposition than against the government. Unless we no longer even find it useful to vote.