The overall cost of dropping out of school in Quebec can be estimated at nearly $14 billion per year, according to a study carried out by an economist from the University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières which takes into account several factors, including the social impacts associated with this reality.
Professor Frédéric Laurin first carried out a study on the economic impact of school dropouts in Mauricie, financed by regional stakeholders mobilized around education.
At the request of NewspaperMr. Laurin used the same methodology to arrive at an overall annual cost for the entire province, taking into account the 437,200 Quebecers without a diploma who are aged 25 and 64 (see details below).
“I never thought I would achieve figures like these,” he says.
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Individual and social costs
The income gap between people without a diploma and those who have completed at least a secondary or professional studies diploma – or more than $8,000 per person according to Statistics Canada – is first taken into account since these amounts are equivalent to a loss of potential GDP, explains the researcher.
The loss of revenue for governments in tax collection and employment insurance contributions was also considered, as was the cost in employment insurance benefits since the unemployment rate is higher among dropouts.
Social impacts and their cost to governments are also part of the equation: dropouts benefit more from social assistance, while being more at risk of developing health and social problems (dependency, crime, etc.). ), according to several studies.
The total bill for governments, in lost income and social costs, amounts to $23,201 per dropout, indicates Mr. Laurin, who based himself in particular on the work of a Canadian economist to arrive at this conclusion.
When these per person costs are transposed to the provincial scale, we arrive at a considerable sum of nearly $14 billion per year.
This is of course an estimate, but economist Pierre Fortin, who is very interested in these issues, affirms that his colleague’s approach holds water. “His method seems correct to me,” he says.
Major economic impact
Frédéric Laurin, for his part, is particularly concerned about the economic and social impact of dropping out, particularly in regions where the qualification of the workforce represents a challenge.
“The most important thing is the effect on regional economic development. It’s major,” he said.
The dropout rate in Quebec is 13.5%, which corresponds to approximately 10,000 students each year who leave school without a diploma, according to the Ministry of Education.
The delays accumulated by students during the five weeks of strike this fall and the attractiveness of the job market currently make those involved in the fight against dropping out fear the worst, who have just launched an offensive in order to bring back and keep teenagers on school. school benches.
According to information from school management, the return to class does not seem to be marked for the moment by an increase in dropouts in secondary schools, but the situation could be very different in vocational training and education centers. adults.
Overall cost of dropping out of school in Quebec*
*Based on 437,200 Quebecers without a diploma aged 25 and 64
Source: Frédéric Laurin, professor of economics at the University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières, from a report produced for the Mauricie Regional Education Table.