A week ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called on the occasion of the Orthodox Christmas to “national reconciliation”, raising hopes of a move towards peace after 14 months of war. But the same day, a drone strike on a camp for displaced people in the Tigray region (northern Ethiopia) killed more than 50 people, according to humanitarian sources. Others then hit a flour mill and a church, killing at least 21, according to doctors and local officials. The UN says at least 108 civilians have been killed since January in airstrikes allegedly carried out by Ethiopian air forces in Tigray.
These strikes highlight the central role that war drones have taken in this conflict, which according to the UN has killed several thousand people and pushed hundreds of thousands towards starvation. They also raise fears for civilians, while Addis Ababa, which has not commented on its drone program, seems to prefer air combat to sending troops to Tigray, now in rebel hands. The communications blackout and restrictions on access to the region make it unclear which weapons are being used, where, and how often. In addition, information from witnesses can be unreliable and drones can be mistaken for airplanes. But for analysts and diplomats, interviewed by AFP, there is clear evidence that Ethiopia has acquired drones from multiple sources and does not hesitate to use them.
Post-attack footage indicates that Iranian, Turkish and Chinese drones have been deployed in recent months, says Wim Zwijnenburg, an equipment expert for the Dutch peacekeeping organization PAX, which has been monitoring the conflict in Ethiopia. “I think Ethiopia is indeed currently the biggest user of drones on the continent,” he said. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent the federal army to Tigray in November 2020 to dismiss regional authorities from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) who challenged his authority and whom he accused of attacking military bases. . The TPLF, which then took up arms, then led a counter-offensive which enabled it to reconquer most of the region at the end of June 2021 and to progress in those neighboring Amhara and Afar. The rebels claimed in November to have arrived 200 kilometers from Addis Ababa. Last December, they retreated to their stronghold of Tigray in the face of a military offensive by government forces. They have promised not to “to advance” In the region.
For the International Crisis Group (ICG), drone strikes have been, together with mass mobilization campaigns, a “key factor” government gains. Beyond strikes, this equipment also offers a huge advantage in terms of military surveillance. The ICG believes that the current situation offers “a chance for peace” but for the TPLF, the repeated drone strikes help to make this improbable. “Drones continue to attack civilians and infrastructure”, thus defends Kindeya Gebrehiwot, a spokesperson for the TPLF contacted by AFP. He accuses Mr. Abiy of “undermine any peace initiative”. The Ethiopian government has mentioned holding a “national dialogue” to appease Africa’s second most populous country. At the same time, Abiy’s supporters and some of his opponents see drones as a legitimate tool as the war is not over.
The latest drone strikes do not spare civilians. For Wim Zwijnenburg of the PAX group, civilian casualties undermine the argument that such weapons allow precision fire in combat zones. “It shows that drones don’t necessarily save civilian lives. It totally depends on who presses the button”, he said. US President Joe Biden raised concerns about the airstrikes during a phone conversation with Abiy Ahmed, according to the White House. In a statement last week, Amnesty International reiterated a call on the government to allow access to Tigray so that the attacks can be investigated.