The Canadian did not spit on his victory in the draft lottery last summer, but it was almost a poisoned gift: he first had to convince the fans that Shane Wright was not the hoped-for savior before choosing his real crush, Juraj Slafkovsky.
And still the Slovak constituted in their eyes the best hope of a cohort after all weak. No one can predict who will be the best of the bunch. It may even be a player excluded from the top 5 Where 10.
The April 2023 lottery will have a much different meaning, with Connor Bedard’s exploits in the Western Junior League since the start of the season, but also, above all, his exploits at the World Junior Championship. The 17-year-old soars above the competition with his 21 points in just five games, 10 more than his closest pursuer, American Logan Cooley, third overall pick in 2022, and 15 more than Shane Wright, center of Canada’s other attacking line.
Martin St-Louis may curse the defeats of recent weeks, but his bosses Kent Hughes and Geoff Gorton, the initiators of this reconstruction, will not spit on the possibility of getting their hands on the best hope since Connor McDavid, perhaps even Sidney Crosby.
The Canadian and fans will not be the only ones dreaming, of course. Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus trail in the basement of the standings and are expected to take the bottom three spots, including the top three ahead of the lottery. Chicago holds 25.5% of the first draft as of today. Followed by Anaheim at 13.5% and Columbus at 11.5%.
The Canadian is sixth, at 7.5%, but ahead of Arizona (8.5%) and San Jose (9.5%) by only two points. The Coyotes still have two games in hand over Montreal, but the Sharks have played two more games.
The CH also holds the choice of the Florida Panthers, currently located in seventh place in anticipation of the lottery, with an estimated success rate of 6%. Montreal therefore has a 13.5% chance of drafting Connor Bedard, a rate identical to that of the Ducks, second behind the Blackhawks.
In an ideal world, the Panthers and the Canadian would continue to accumulate defeats. Florida leads Philadelphia by a small point. In a moderately probable, but realistic scenario, Montreal could end up with the 4e and 7e choice, with a probable success rate of drafting first place at 16%.
Canada and Bedard face the United States on Wednesday night in the semifinals. To defeat the Americans, other players on the Canadian team will have to produce. Identified at the start of the tournament as the first line, Shane Wright, Dylan Guenther and Brendan Othmann have still not scored tied since they were reunited from the second game. The three together have three points less than Bedard…
The Americans opened the tournament badly with a loss to Slovakia, but they regained their momentum afterwards. Their offense relies on their first line of three 2022 first-round picks, Logan Cooley (11 points), Cutter Gauthier (8 points) and Jimmy Snuggerud.
They beat Germany 11-1 in the quarter-finals; Canada needed a legendary goal from Connor Bedard in overtime on Tuesday to beat Slovakia 4-3.
The Americans’ number one defenseman, Luke Hughes, New Jersey’s fourth overall pick in 2021, has been replaced after a rocky start to the tournament. The first Canadian defender, Olen Zellweger, drafted in the second round by Anaheim that same year, has nothing to envy him offensively.
Canadiens fans will want to keep a closer look at 2022 late second-round pick defenseman Lane Hutson. Despite his 18 years, Hutson is having a good tournament, without being the leader in defense. He has three points in five games, one less than Hughes, without being used very often on the power play, and leads all defensemen in this Championship in pass success rate in the slot. He also has a 97% success rate in getting in possession of the puck.
PHOTO RON WARD, THE CANADIAN PRESS
American defender Lane Hutson
In the other semi-final, pitting Sweden against the Czech Republic, is another Canadian hope in defense, Adam Engström, third round choice in 2022. This young man of 19 years is one of the pillars in defense within the first pair. Engström has three points in five games and a +3 record, two highs among defensemen on his team.
Young Leo Carlsson will also be one to watch. This candidate for the next repechage scored two big goals in Sweden’s victory over Finland in the quarter-finals on Tuesday. Who knows if this center is not now ahead of Adam Fantilli in second place in the eye of recruiters, with the latter’s rather disappointing tournament.
The Czech Republic, a talented, experienced and strong formation, winner of Canada at the tournament opener, is led by brilliant defender David Jiricek, sixth overall choice by Columbus in 2022, defender Stanislav Svozil and forward Jiri Kulich, drafted by Buffalo two ranks after Filip Mesar by the Canadian. Kulich has seven points, including five goals, in five games, but Mesar is no slouch with six points in a less offensively powerful formation, with 17 goals in five games, against 33 for the Czech Republic.