More than 130 heads of state and government are expected to depart New York on Sunday for the UN’s annual high mass, at a volatile moment when the international community is unable to silence the guns in Gaza, Ukraine or Sudan.
“From the Middle East to Sudan, Ukraine and beyond, we see bullets and bombs maiming and killing, bodies piling up, populations traumatized, buildings in ruins,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denounced a few days ago.
But even if he worries about a regional escalation of the war in Gaza or the nuclear risk linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he believes that the world, despite its divisions, can “avoid going towards a third world war”.
This landmark moment for international diplomacy “could not come at a more critical time,” commented the American ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, listing the long list of conflicts, violence and humanitarian crises: Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, Haiti, Burma…
“In the face of all these challenges, it is easy to fall into cynicism, to abandon hope and to give up on democracy, but we cannot afford to do that,” she insisted.
Even if it is unlikely that this great mass will produce concrete results for the millions of civilians who pay the heaviest price.
“Difference on the ground”?
With the expected arrival of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and also the new Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, “Gaza is obviously going to be the most salient of these conflicts in the speeches” of the leaders, commented Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group. “But I don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference on the ground.”
The war was triggered by an unprecedented attack by Hamas commandos on Israeli soil on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of 1,205 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures that include hostages killed or killed in captivity in the Gaza Strip.
More than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory military operation in the Gaza Strip, according to the Hamas government’s health ministry in Gaza.
Fears of an extension of the war in Lebanon are at their peak after a series of deadly explosions attributed to Israel this week targeted the transmission systems of Hezbollah, backed by Iran and allied with Hamas.
Despite the absence, as in recent years, of the Russian and Chinese presidents, the list of leaders announced in New York is long and includes the American Joe Biden, the French Emmanuel Macron, the British Keir Starmer, the Indian Narendra Modi, the Brazilian Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Summit of the future” or of the past
The latter had been the big star of the General Assembly in September 2023. But while he must soon present his “plan for victory”, he is now struggling to “stay in the spotlight”, notes a diplomat.
Slovenia, which holds the Security Council presidency in September, had not planned anything special, but a high-level meeting of the Council is now scheduled for Tuesday with Volodymyr Zelensky in attendance, at the request of the Ukrainians.
Before the usual succession of speeches at the General Assembly podium starting on Tuesday, this diplomatic week will open on Sunday and Monday with the “Summit of the Future”.
The 193 member states are to adopt a “Pact for the Future” intended to strengthen international tools to face the challenges and threats of the 21st century.e century, reviewing the importance of multilateralism and respect for the UN charter, the reform of international financial institutions, or even the fight against climate change, disarmament, the development of AI…
But after “intense” and not completely finished negotiations, diplomats and observers note a worrying lack of ambition.
“One of the risks – and it is more than a risk – is that this summit of the future will look more like a summit of the past, or at best a summit of the present,” says one diplomat ironically.
But for Laetitia Courtois, representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross to the UN, “the future starts now, by dealing with conflicts.” It is important that this is not just “a goal for the next generation.”