(Paris) Is the Russian army concentrating on its logistical reorganization? Or are the difficulties she faces such that she has no choice but to lower her ambitions? After six weeks of war, which began in difficulty, the question remains.
Posted at 8:54 a.m.
If Western experts are unanimous in describing a failed start to the conflict for Russia, which dreamed of taking Kyiv in a few days, the current redeployment towards the East and the Donbass gives rise to contrasting interpretations.
“After the failure in Kyiv, the Russians no longer managed to break through, except in the southern part where they left Crimea towards Kherson and the pro-Russian territories,” a state source told AFP. – French major. They “adopt defensive positions on a good part of the northern confrontation lines and concentrate their efforts on the strategic zone”.
But once the observation is made, its deep meaning remains. “It is difficult to measure if they are on a strategic break to go back on the attack or if they are down,” admits this source.
“Russian forces can prepare for a wider offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk districts […] but will struggle to produce the necessary combat force,” predicts the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
For example, according to former French army colonel Michel Goya, “the 1D Armored Guards Army was transferred to the Donbass-North sector in preparation for the decisive battle in April”. But “when this mass of attack will be worn out in combat at the end of April-beginning of May, the Russian maneuvering capacity will be reduced to very little”.
Exhausted
The information disseminated and widely relayed by the Ukrainians already evokes heavy human and material losses on the Russian side.
Figures are even rarer on the Ukrainian side, which complicates the analysis of the balance of power. But it is a fact that a defending army suffers less than an attacking one.
A unit that has lost 30% of its combat capability is ineffective, recalls Raphael Cohen, military expert for the Rand Corporation, agreeing with the (unverified) estimates of Russian losses at between 7,000 and 15,000 men.
However, the conscripts supposed to replace them are unevenly trained and the mercenaries fewer than expected. “If Russia cannot make up for its losses, it risks being exhausted,” says the analyst.
Michel Goya observes for his part that the company of mercenaries Wagner, reputed to be close to Putin, accepts all the candidates who present themselves.
“These individual commitments intended to fill in the gaps and not to constitute new forces give an indication of the very high level of losses”, writes the retired officer. According to him, Russia seems “to have lost the equivalent of about thirty combined arms tactical groups (GTIA) out of 120 committed and a maximum potential of about 140”.
While the eyes of Western chancelleries turn to the atrocities committed in areas under Russian control, the military is skeptical about the balance of power.
Initiative lost
“We have not seen a massive redeployment of these Russian forces” from the north of the country, notes a Western official on condition of anonymity, who expects Moscow to “rewrite its narrative” on its military objectives and on what she “defines as success or failure”.
On May 9, Moscow will indeed celebrate the very important anniversary of the victory against Nazi Germany in 1945. The Kremlin will desperately need victories to claim to justify its intervention in Ukraine.
However, the observations of the last few days are not all encouraging for his army. “Russia has completely lost the initiative,” says the Western official. “Just yesterday, we saw lines of Russian tanks trying to advance on the road and struggling against Ukrainian resistance,” he notes. “Even if they learn […]they continue to compromise their ability to achieve their goals.”
The complete fall of Mariupol, a strategic port in the south-east of the country, on the Sea of Azov, seems imminent. The city has been literally flattened by bombs for weeks and would be an important strategic victory for Moscow.
But the difficulties recorded for six weeks, the Ukrainian bravery, the cold and the losses – which also concern the general officers – weigh on the psychological health of his troops.
The general staff “apparently gives instructions to severely restrict the Internet access of Russian troops in an attempt to combat their low morale”, adds the ISW in this regard.