(New York) Oil prices rose again on Wednesday, with the market once again doubting an imminent diplomatic solution in Ukraine, and the lack of global supply resumed its place of concern.
Posted at 3:22 p.m.
Brent crude from the North Sea, for delivery in May, closed with a gain of 2.92% at 113.45 dollars, after having approached 115 dollars earlier in the day (114.80).
In New York, the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also expiring in May, took 3.43% to end at 107.82 dollars.
“Oil has come out of its weakness as (news of) significant progress in ceasefire talks appears premature,” said Bart Melek of TD Securities in a note.
“The market is back to reality again,” said Robert Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Securities. “There won’t be a Russian peace plan within a quarter of an hour, so the sanctions aren’t going to be lifted anytime soon. »
Operators have more than ever in mind the Russian barrels that are missing, despite the absence of sanctions directly targeting oil from Russia.
According to Mr. Yawger, Russian exports are currently cut by around 1.5 million barrels per day for crude and one million for refined products.
The firm Rystad Energy estimates that refining in Russia is nearly 13% below its available capacity, due to a “series of factors”, including the decision of many governments, traders, companies, transporters or insurers to reduce , or even to suspend their commercial relations with Russian producers.
“These concerns about supply more than offset” those related to the confinements decreed in several cities in China, including Shanghai, to try to contain a resurgence of coronavirus cases, according to Bart Melek.
The general impression was reinforced by the much sharper than expected contraction in US commercial oil reserves, which fell by 3.4 million barrels in one week, after 2.5 million barrels in the previous seven days.
Despite these tensions, the market does not expect any gesture from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies of the OPEC + agreement, which meet Thursday by videoconference.
“I don’t think we’ll see anything other than the additional 400,000 barrels” daily in May, which would correspond to maintaining the limited production increase schedule that began last July, Mr. Yawger announced.
For him, the effect of such an announcement would be all the more limited since, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the members of OPEC + are already behind by 1.1 million barrels per day. against their production targets.