By announcing the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, its ally against Ukraine, Russia is reproducing a model used by the Americans in Europe, but leaves many doubts hanging over the reality of its intentions.
As on several occasions since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Vladimir Putin brandished the nuclear threat a little higher to show his public opinion his determination and put pressure on Ukraine’s Western allies.
And as always, Western chancelleries and experts put its nuclear diplomacy into perspective.
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On Saturday, the Russian president announced the deployment in Belarus – bordering Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania – of so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons, therefore of short range.
He has since brushed aside Western condemnation, noting that the United States had long deployed nuclear weapons in Europe.
A factually correct argument. Washington has been deploying bombs in Europe for decades and several NATO countries have missiles capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads.
“We already knew that Russia was moving towards the adoption of a NATO-type agreement with Belarus […]. There is nothing new”, writes on his Twitter account Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, American expert in nuclear non-proliferation.
Today, Germany, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey have American warheads.
Vectors and warehouse
As always with announcements of this type, the details are scarce and the questions countless.
The vectors first: Putin indicated that ten Belarusian planes were “ready to use this type of weapon”, specifying that they had also transferred Iskander missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
But he also mentioned a “special warehouse” to store nuclear weapons at the 1er July.
“For the moment, there is no trace of this construction and it seems rather unlikely that it will be finished in three months”, explains to AFP Marc Finaud, vice-president of the Initiatives for nuclear disarmament (IDN ).
“We can trust all the spy satellites in the world to scan the Belarusian territory” and make the difference between announcements and realities, he adds.
Pavel Podvig, an independent Russian expert, even considers it “very unlikely — from my point of view impossible — that real nuclear weapons will be moved to Belarus”.
Contradiction
As often, Putin handles the nuclear threat without changing doctrine. And the fact that he uses it frequently contradicts other public statements that recall the taboo of the ultimate weapon.
In January 2022, two months before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia signed a declaration with the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council recalling that “a nuclear war cannot be won”.
The global geopolitical situation has since changed eras. But Putin reiterated a similar stance days ago with his Chinese ally Xi Jinping. “The parties again declare that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and that it must never be started,” they jointly declared.
Marc Finaud also argues that the two men also recalled “that no nuclear weapon should be stationed in a foreign country”. Putin “violates Russia’s own constant position”, underlines the former diplomat.
Proliferation
As with each verbal protrusion from Putin on the file, the Western chancelleries remain measured.
“We have no indication that he kept his commitment or that no nuclear weapons were transferred,” said John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council.
“For the moment it is an announcement. The risk of employment is not immediate”, confirms Marc Finaud, even if each hypothesis of transfer of a nuclear warhead increases the risk of error, piracy or accident.
But this recurrent Russian rhetoric “also increases the demand for deterrence in NATO countries”, notes Jeffrey Lewis. “That’s basically why we see Sweden and Finland seeking security through NATO membership.”
In a statement on Monday, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2017, recalled that a “tactical” nuclear weapon could reach 100 kilotons, compared to only 16 for one that “destroyed Hiroshima and killed 140,000 people” in August 1945.