Donald Trump’s potential withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and plans to repeal climate regulations could hinder U.S. progress on emission reductions, which currently aim for a 52% cut by 2030. Despite a slight decline in emissions, challenges persist, particularly in transportation and electricity generation. Trump’s presidency may favor the oil and gas industry, jeopardizing green technology advancements while creating tensions with international climate commitments. Meanwhile, investment in clean energy continues to grow as the U.S. seeks to compete globally.
Implications of Trump’s Climate Policy on the Future
The American climate policy landscape is facing critical changes as Donald Trump has signaled his intention to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement once more. His plans also include repealing key climate programs and emission regulations, hindering the advancement of renewable energy, and bolstering the oil industry. Meanwhile, the climate outcomes from Joe Biden’s four-year administration present a mixed picture.
The United States is far from achieving its climate objectives. Currently, it ranks as the second-largest polluter globally, trailing only China, and emits more greenhouse gases per capita than most regions. Historically, the U.S. has contributed the most greenhouse gas emissions, a legacy that continues to impact global climate efforts.
Climate Goals and Challenges Ahead
Despite a slight decrease in emissions over the past two decades, the trend has been inconsistent. Analysts from the Rhodium Group recently highlighted that emissions fell by a mere 0.2 percent last year. While the industrial and oil and gas sectors saw reductions, emissions from air and road transport, as well as electricity generation, have risen.
By 2030, the U.S. aims to cut emissions by up to 52 percent, a commitment made by Biden upon rejoining the Paris Agreement in 2021. However, the country still struggles to meet this target, even with substantial funding from the Inflation Reduction Act and new emission regulations. Analysts warn that to stay on track, the U.S. would need to achieve a 7.6 percent annual reduction over the next five years—a feat not accomplished outside of recession periods. Current projections suggest a reduction of only 38 to 56 percent below 2005 levels by 2035.
Under a Trump presidency, achieving these climate goals could become even more challenging. Analysts predict that emissions reductions could be limited to around 40 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, largely due to Trump’s plans to dismantle emission regulations and tax incentives for clean technologies. This could result in a stalling of renewable energy expansion and a sharp increase in natural gas usage.
On the international front, the U.S. has long been seen as an unreliable partner in emission reduction initiatives. The anticipated withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could embolden other nations lagging in climate action and potentially allow countries like China to step into a leadership role on the global stage.
As the largest producer of oil and gas, the U.S. intends to maintain its position. The oil and gas sector views a Trump presidency favorably, celebrating his electoral success as a win for their industry. The U.S. became the top exporter of liquefied natural gas in 2023 and leads in crude oil production.
In contrast, Biden’s stance toward the oil and gas industry has become more aggressive, with recent announcements including a pause on new natural gas export licenses and a ban on new offshore drilling—although this ban has limited impact due to the reluctance of many states to allow new drilling platforms.
Trump’s plans to reverse Biden’s policies could stimulate oil and gas production further, potentially leading to new approvals for liquefied natural gas terminals and offshore drilling on federal lands. Despite these ambitions, the repeal of Biden’s regulations will require congressional approval.
It is essential to recognize that while Trump’s energy policies may favor the oil and gas sector, they could jeopardize the progress of green technologies. Trump’s intention to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes significant tax advantages for renewable energy and green technology development, poses a serious threat to the sector.
However, some tax credits may still garner bipartisan support, as a substantial number of proposed green energy projects benefit Republican-led states. With a narrow Republican majority in Congress, it may only take a few votes to maintain critical incentives that could help keep energy costs manageable in various districts.
As the demand for electricity continues to grow, representatives from the renewable energy sector are working to align their messages with Trump’s energy agenda. They emphasize the necessity of clean technologies for economic growth, especially as renewables currently account for approximately 21 percent of electricity generation.
Investment in green technologies has surged, with clean energy initiatives and industrial decarbonization projects totaling $264 billion since late 2022. A further $435 billion has been announced but remains unspent. The U.S. aims to compete with China in industrial sectors, reflecting both the agendas of Trump and the outgoing administration of Joe Biden amidst these ongoing uncertainties.