The first ballot box test was expected. And it was successful for former US President Donald Trump in Ohio, with the victory Tuesday evening, in the Republican Party primaries, of his “foal”, the novelist and conservative JD Vance.
This result, still improbable three weeks ago for this weathervane candidate who went from acerbic criticism of the populist in 2016 to a megaphone of his eccentric theories and his divisive speeches in 2022, confirms the grip that the politician seems to retain on his party – without setting the tone for the other primaries to come in the coming months, elsewhere in the country.
Ohio is indeed a state strongly rooted in “Trumpism”, the autocratic leader having won this corner of the country with an 8-point lead over Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, who nevertheless dedicated the Democrat’s victory to country-wide.
“Donald Trump’s influence on the Republican Party continues to be strong and Vance’s victory is just the latest proof of that,” Republican strategist Mark Weaver said on Wednesday. The duty in Ohio. “The people who hate Donald Trump the most are the Democratic supporters. Republicans love Mr. Trump, and thanks to him, the party will win a historic victory in Congress in the midterm elections this fall. »
Chosen by Republican voters in Ohio and dubbed on April 15 by Donald Trump, while he was trailing in the polls, J. D. Vance is therefore preparing to face the Democratic deputy Tim Ryan in the race to win the seat of senator of the ‘State. The post was held by moderate Republican Rob Portman, who is not running. A victory for Vance in November would bring the US Senate, the upper house of the US legislature, even more in tune with the ideology carried by the populist.
J. D. Vance, author of the popular novel Hillbilly Eleganta reflection on the crisis of the American dream seen through the eyes of Ohio’s rural middle class, foiled the rise to the polls of former state treasurer Josh Mandel, the man of business Mike Gibbons and former Ohio Republican Party chairwoman Jane Timken, all of whom sought the support of the Mar-a-Lago clock master.
Regional Senator Matt Dolan, the only candidate in the race to have distanced himself from Donald Trump, came in third place, 9 points behind Vance, with 23% of the vote. Against 32% for the choice of the ex-president.
From critic to Trump follower
After calling Donald Trump “an idiot” in 2016 and warning the country about the rise of the ex-reality TV star, who he believes can become the “Hitler of America”, J. D. Vance has become a fervent defender of the populist taking up in his electoral campaign the lies of the ex-president on electoral fraud and his demonization of immigration.
A change of course described as “opportunistic” by the political columnist of the Cincinnati EnquirerJason William, a few days ago.
Vance also questioned US military engagement abroad, even to support Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.
However, for political scientist Justin Buchler, professor at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio, “Donald Trump deserves no credit for the victory” of this candidate whose rise in the polls began in the days preceding populist endorsement, he points out.
JD Vance’s victory, which divided Ohio Republicans during the campaign, is not necessarily viewed favorably by theestablishment of the party, recalls the site Axios, citing a Republican senatorial source. According to her, “of all the candidates for the Ohio Senate, Vance [est celui qui a] caused the biggest headaches [au parti] “, even if many in the political formation still believed, last December, that he “would not win”.
The Republican Old Guard “privately views Vance with the same distaste they do Donald Trump,” it read.
In the wake of JD Vance’s victory, his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan sent him a first salvo by emphasizing in advertising the inconsistencies of the character who comes to the defense of the poorest of Ohio after having made “millions and invests in companions who have benefited from globalization and the free market”, which he denounces today.
Double-edged
“Candidates who act incendiary can actually help the opposing party raise funds in a measurable way and face lower votes than more moderate candidates,” Buchler said in an interview. In 2013, he also signed a study on the phenomenon. A fear that seems to be spreading within the Republican Party, where some are already considering the defeats of “exotic” candidates on electoral grounds yet acquired by the conservatives, reported Wednesday Sarah Longwell, director of the Republican Accountability Project, in the pages of the New York Times.
Adhering to the conspiracy theories put forward by Donald Trump has not been beneficial for all the candidates in the Republican primary in Ohio. On Tuesday night, Ohio Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose easily survived John Adams, who ran denying Joe Biden’s election victory and discrediting the US electoral system; he beat him with a 30-point lead.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine also pushed back against populist opponents who were trying to unseat him by attacking the state’s restrictive measures to deal with the pandemic.
Flag bearers of the so-called “freedom” movements also fared poorly in Indiana, where Republican primaries were also played on Tuesday night. The office holders in the race for their re-election have, in the vast majority, won their primary against candidates from or galvanized by these claims sharpened by misinformation, radicalization by social networks and pandemic fatigue.