Donald Trump sows confusion in Taiwan

(Washington) For Donald Trump, American leadership comes at a price.

Would he defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion if he is re-elected president in November? The Republican candidate for the White House leaves doubts hanging, but, as with Ukraine or NATO, he intends to make Taipei pay for its defense.

The United States has long maintained what it calls “strategic ambiguity” about Taiwan, but Democratic President Joe Biden has made clear he would intervene to defend the island if necessary.

Asked whether he would come to the rescue of the island, which Beijing claims as part of its territory, the former business tycoon dodges the question and calls Taipei to the till, true to his mercantile vision of foreign policy.

“I know these people very well, I respect them very much. They took about 100% of our chip business. And I think Taiwan should pay us for its defense,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek published Tuesday.

Taiwan manufactures the majority of semiconductors needed for the global economy.

The statements of Donald Trump, officially proclaimed this week as the Republican Party candidate for the November 5 presidential election against Joe Biden, have caused confusion, even on the financial markets.

Taiwanese Prime Minister Cho Jung-tai responded by pointing out that Taipei had increased its defense budget in recent years.

“Transactional approach”

“Many of the people who advised the former president during his [premier] “Mandate and likely advising his re-election campaign believe that the primary geopolitical goal of the United States is to deter China from invading Taiwan,” observes Ali Wyne, a researcher at the International Crisis Group.

“Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s recent comments underscore his transactional approach to foreign policy and risk upsetting Taipei, which is increasingly concerned about the balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait and intensifying strategic competition between Washington and Beijing,” he added.

This specialist in US-China relations predicts that, given his “all-trade” tropism, a second Trump presidency would not be much more “aggressive” towards Beijing.

The Republican candidate has made fair burden sharing one of the axes of his foreign policy, demanding for example during his first term (2017-2021) that Europeans take out their checkbooks within the framework of NATO.

More recently, he caused an uproar by saying he would encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to “do whatever he wants” if a NATO country failed to meet its financial commitments to the alliance.

This meant that he would not necessarily come to their aid, despite Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty which states that an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all.

Unusually, the Taiwan issue does not figure in the Republican election platform, adopted this week at the party’s convention in Milwaukee, which speaks only of “countering China.”

“Taiwan pays”

Although Washington has recognised Beijing, to the detriment of Taipei, as a legitimate power since 1979, the United States remains the island’s most powerful partner and its main supplier of arms.

Asked on Wednesday, the spokesman for American diplomacy, Matthew Miller, refused to comment directly on Donald Trump’s remarks.

But, he noted, “Taiwan pays for its defense.”

In a significant turnaround, however, the United States this year decided for the first time to provide direct military assistance to Taiwan, having previously limited itself to arms sales.

A law passed in the spring provides for eight billion dollars to stand up to China militarily by investing in submarines and to come to the aid of Taiwan.

With the stated aim of dissuading China from any expansionist intentions, a law passed in the American Congress also requires the supply of defensive weapons to Taiwan.

The Taiwan issue is highly sensitive in China and is one of the main points of contention with the United States, as Beijing claims the island of 23 million inhabitants, which has been ruled since 1949 by a rival regime.