Donald Trump is absolutely right: his trial was rigged. He was never able to benefit from a full defense. His lawyers were literally handcuffed and unable to defend him.
For what ? Because they were prisoners of the lies that Donald Trump has multiplied for decades. In fact, Trump was trapped by his own lies, big and small.
We almost feel sorry for Todd Blanche, a renowned lawyer who headed Mr. Trump’s legal team. He had to defend his client, but without being able to speak freely about what was the starting point of this whole cause, namely that Mr. Trump had a relationship with the porn star Stormy Daniels, whom he paid $130,000 for his silence.
Mr. Trump, as usual, denied everything. The relationship, the payment to Stormy Daniels and the falsification of the accounting records to hide it.
As Republican Senator Mitt Romney said: “This would be the first time that a woman has been given $130,000 not to have sex with her. » Mr. Trump’s whole story didn’t add up, but his lawyers had no choice but to stick with his version.
As it was obvious that they were not going to have Mr. Trump testify at his trial. The man is a real “perjury machine”, his lawyers said so that he would not testify at the Muller inquiry, when he was president.
His attitude comes from the strategy of Roy Cohn, who was his first lawyer and “fixer”: admit nothing, always attack. A strategy that he has followed without deviating until today: it is the judge and the entire judicial system that is corrupt, not him.
Obviously, this case is not a state affair compared to the three others which are mired in the procedure, namely having organized a conspiracy to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election, having tried to convince the governor of Georgia to overturn the election result in his state and refusing to hand over secret documents he had taken with him when leaving the White House.
But even if it is more than likely that he will appeal the decision, Mr. Trump is now a “convicted criminal”, as his opponents will repeat from every platform. The question now is whether this conviction is likely to have an effect on next November’s election.
The answer is no and yes.
No, in the sense that the American electorate has been so divided for at least a decade that almost everyone knows whether they are for Trump or against Trump. Additionally, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is unpopular and has a reputation for lacking energy, which is an understatement.
But that said, a criminal conviction still cannot be a good thing for Mr. Trump, even if it has allowed him to receive a lot of contributions to his campaign since the jury’s decision.
In an election that is very close and could come down to a handful of votes in four or five key states, even a minor swing in the electorate could change a lot of things.
A YouGov poll taken on Thursday evening – so hot and while perceptions can change – indicated that 50% of respondents said they agreed with the jury and that Mr. Trump was guilty, compared to 30% who believed so. innocent and 19% undecided.
The same poll shows that 47% of Americans believe the trial was fair compared to 37% who think it was not.
Furthermore, a survey of New York Times conducted last October said that 7% of people who currently support Mr. Trump would be likely to vote for Mr. Biden if the former president were convicted in a criminal trial. The question did not discuss specific accusations.
Seven percent is not much, but at the same time it can be decisive if a race is very close, like this one.
Everything indicates that the Republican base will remain very mobilized despite the verdict, but the voters who are against Trump are just as much.
It will also be necessary to take into account the effect that the verdict will have on Mr. Trump himself. He was, it was said in those around him, certain of not being found guilty, if only because of a divided jury.
Anyone who saw the virtually incoherent 40-minute diatribe he delivered Friday morning at Trump Tower — in what was billed as a press conference but prompted no questions — can see that Mr. Trump fate heavily affected by this trial.
To make matters worse – or proof that justice is not neutral, it’s a choice – the sentence should be pronounced on July 11, just four days before the start of the Republican convention which will formalize Mr. Trump’s candidacy.
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