Does the intensification of drone attacks mark the beginning of the counter-offensive promised by kyiv?

“Our brigades are ready to move forward.” In his daily address dated Tuesday May 30, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia of the “rise in power” of his troops, and “On all fronts”. That same morning, Moscow and its region had jumped at dawn after several explosions: a drone attack attributed to kyiv, three weeks after the neutralization of similar devices near the Kremlin. Each time, Ukraine has denied any responsibility.

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In recent weeks, however, incidents of this type have multiplied on Russian territory, without their perpetrators being able to be identified with certainty. While kyiv repeats that its soldiers are sharpening their weapons in order to “recover what [leur] belongs”, from the title of a recent mobilization video of the Ukrainian army, Russia seems to be losing the initiative of the attack and is being forced to react. Franceinfo looks back on these events, described as the beginnings of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Drone attacks put Russia ‘in defensive phase’

Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian territory has also been affected by hostilities. Several air bases of the Russian army have thus suffered shell and missile fire, in the Rostov region in particular. On December 26, 2022, the Engels military base in southern Russia, more than 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, came under a drone attack which claimed the lives of three Russian soldiers, according to Moscow. Among the most affected regions, the oblast of Belgorod, bordering Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine, has frequently seen its fuel depots and electrical installations targeted by bombardments. Thursday morning, “uninterrupted strikes” rocket launchers killed at least eight people in this region, said the local governor.

The month of May then saw a change in the register of these attacks reported by Russia, whose capital was hit twice in less than 30 days. On Wednesday morning, two oil refineries in the Krasnodar region in southwestern Russia were hit by a drone attack, which Moscow immediately blamed on Ukraine. The latter, however, has never claimed this type of operation. “We must remain cautious about these attacks, drones in particular”explains to franceinfo General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine. “We are not sure if these are still devices launcheds by Ukraine.”

If the vagueness persists, at least officially, the effect “psychological” of these attacks is on the other hand very clear, according to Jérôme Pellistrandi. “In any case, [ces frappes] make it possible to increase the excitement on the Russian side, he assures, and that put Russia on the defensive waiting for that famous Ukrainian counter-offensive.” While the front line remains frozen, these attacks deep into Russian territory sound, for the military expert, like the beginning of a new Ukrainian momentum. “By disrupting the functioning of its adversary, the Ukrainian army is forcing the Russians to disperse and could regain the upper hand in this conflict”he analyzes.

A counter-offensive which “must be played on two tables”

It remains to be seen what this counter-offensive, promised by kyiv for several months now, will look like. “The Ukrainians are already looking to cut off the Russian logistics chain, but they will have to go on the offensive to achieve their primary objective: to recover the 17% of Ukrainian territory currently under Russian control”warns Jérôme Pellistrandi. “To be effective, this counter-offensive must be played out on two fronts, hitting on the one hand the fuel and ammunition depots, the command posts, and the railway lines used by the Russians, without forgetting to engage on the ground to reconquer these territories”lists the specialist.

On the side of Ukraine, everything is a matter of measure in the preparation of this counter-attack. Very vocal about the imminence of major maneuvers, the Ukrainian government systematically avoids the question of its responsibility in the attacks on Russian soil. “We are at war, and our generals decide how to do their job (…), we follow our plans on the different battlefields”evaded Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview published by West France (article reserved for subscribers)Monday.

The recent drone attacks also have a tactical interest on the ground, Michel Goya, former colonel of the navy troops and military historian, stressed on Tuesday on franceinfo. They allow to“draw the Russian defenses inside rather [que] on the front line, so as to weaken this front line”. A way for kyiv to unblock the positions around the combat zones, frozen for long weeks. According to Michel Goya, however, such attacks pose the “risk of falling into an escalating spiral”and could come and feed “the Russian discourse of aggression” but also “cause a Russian mobilization or tightening behind Vladimir Putin”.

The Russian army is trying to exhaust Ukrainian military resources

In the background, drone and missile strikes force both sides to defend their cities, mobilizing significant air defense assets that are therefore not on the front line. According the American think tank Institute for the Study of Warwho shares his daily analyzes on the evolution of the conflict on Twitter, “Russian forces have launched a new restricted air campaign in recent months”with drone attacks and missile raids on Ukrainian cities, “in order to degrade Ukraine’s counter-offensive capabilities”. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba acknowledged Tuesday on Twitter (published in English) that the attacks “aimed to exhaust the Ukrainian air defense”and called on the European Union and NATO partners to “increase the production and supply of air defense systems and ammunition”.

In the occupied zones, the Russian camp has also erected gigantic lines of defense, sometimes 30 kilometers deep. “When you stumble on this type of obstacle, you are forced to engage so-called ‘breaching’ means to destroy the fortifications and cross the trenches, details for his part Jérôme Pellistrandi. Except that at that moment, your forces are vulnerable and it can work to your opponent’s advantage.” For the specialist, the hundreds of kilometers of fortifications “show Vladimir Putin’s desire to sanctuary the occupied territories at all costs, hoping to break the upcoming Ukrainian offensive”.

“We are clearly in the preparation phase before D-Day”observes Michel Goya. “The Ukrainians have to be very careful, because their counter-offensive is a single-shot rifle, However, warns Jérôme Pellistrandi. Westerners will take time to deliver again what they have provided [en matière d’armement] to Ukraine in recent months. There is a risk that if Ukraine fails, this conflict will become frozen and last well beyond the year 2023.”

Faced with such a stake, hasn’t the Ukrainian government sacrificed its effect of surprise by announcing for several months a reconquest planned for the coming spring or summer? “It responded to communication requirements, to mobilize and send a signal to Moscow and to Westerners, explains Jérôme Pellistrandi. But if the Ukrainians have shown us one thing since the beginning of this conflict, it is that they are very agile. And always able to surprise.”