Despite the birds and children playing on the embankments, the sketches presented this week by CDPQ Infra fail to hide the fact that the REM de l’Est will disfigure the city center.
Posted on March 13
And while we are rightly debating urban integration, there is still nothing emerging about the financial arrangements for this pharaonic project that Quebec has launched completely upside down.
Allow a simple comparison.
Let’s say you’re taking on a major project, like expanding your home. You will start by determining your budget. Then you will consult an architect who will make a plan according to your needs. Finally, you will ask for quotes from three or four contractors to choose the most advantageous.
In terms of public transit, Quebec did exactly the opposite, knocking directly on the door of a contractor, CDPQ Infra, who replied:
“We do REM.
– Perfect, we’ll get you one. By themselves. »
Today, we are forced to redo the plans, without having the assurance that this is the best project for the East. And we still don’t know yet how much it will cost taxpayers and users who will see their fares increase… even if they never set foot in the REM.
How is it possible ? Get on board, we will explain to you, starting from the beginning: the choice of CDPQ Infra.
François Legault himself denounced this formula, in 2015, when he was on the benches of the opposition. It is that Quebec will have to pay around 8% in return to the CDPQ for 99 years, whereas by giving the mandate to the Ministry of Transport, it would have financed the project over 25 years with a borrowing cost of “just a little nearly 3.5%,” explained the future prime minister.
Yes, it saves Quebec from putting the debt on its books. Yes, this means that CDPQ assumes the financial risk. Yes, it allows you to go faster. But in the end, it will cost six times more to have opted for this type of formula: Ride now, pay later1.
You follow ? So, next station!
Let’s talk about construction costs. For the REM de l’Ouest, the CDPQ Infra estimates the cost of the infrastructure it owns at $6.9 billion, which does not take into account the fees paid by other stakeholders and future extras.
The construction of the REM de l’Est must cost even more, that is 10 billion. But it’s hard to believe that this bill will remain cast in stone, with recent changes like the addition of a downtown tunnel and inflation at over 5%.
If we take into account the cost overruns generally observed for this type of project, the bill could climb to 15 billion2.
And it should be noted that the bill for the REM de l’Est does not take urban development into account. CDPQ Infra has drawn up a nice integrated plan, but has not assessed the costs that will be borne by the cities. Unless they give up.
Are you still on board? Perfect, let’s go backwards.
Attention: we are coming to the most nebulous passage: the operating costs of running the REM, year after year. For the REM de l’Ouest, the score can be estimated at 438 million, based on official figures. For the Eastern REM, we unfortunately remain in the dark.
But in total, experts estimate that we could end up with an additional bill of nearly a billion dollars per year to run the two REMs. A huge amount that will be passed on to the community.
Who will foot the bill?
First, the users who are supposed to pay one third of the overall public transit bill in Montreal.
Of course, new REM users will bring grist to the mill. But not that much, because many are already public transport users, since the REM cannibalizes certain other existing networks.
This is why all users risk seeing their tariffs increase. Since the fare is the same everywhere on the island of Montreal, regardless of the mode used, the student who goes to school by bus will in some way finance the REM user who goes to Sainte-Anne-de- Nice view.
But since there are limits to raising rates without discouraging users, the excess bill risks ending up in the courts of municipalities that are already struggling to maintain existing infrastructure.
To avoid the financial shock, it is necessary to have the right time before putting the REM de l’Est on track.
We all want to act as quickly as possible to equip the east with public transport that would enable it to develop its full potential. But before mortgaging future generations, you have to make sure you have the most advantageous project, which is not clear at the moment.
The REM de l’Est has yet to prove itself.
In the meantime, terminus, everyone get off!