Does the announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops mark the end of the threat of military intervention?

Moscow on Tuesday morning ordered the return of soldiers mobilized near the Ukrainian border. A sign of relaxation but not yet concrete proof of a departure of these thousands of soldiers.

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Is this the start of de-escalation? Russia ordered Tuesday, February 15, in the morning, the return to their garrisons of units deployed near the Ukrainian border. A first sign of relaxation while their presence had raised fears for weeks of an invasion, against a backdrop of Russian-Western tensions. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Moscow on Tuesday to meet Vladimir Putin. It remains to be seen whether these statements will actually translate on the ground.

Already on Monday, the Russian president had given some signs of relaxation, saying that the diplomatic route still had a chance. This message seems to be confirmed on the ground. Thus the Russian Ministry of Defense shared videos on Tuesday where we see tanks leaving their position. The spokesman for the ministry affirms that certain units which had been sent to the borders of Ukraine have finished their maneuvers and that they will return to their garrisons of origin by rail and road convoy.

A new signal of relaxation sent by Moscow and which the Kremlin is even playing with. Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Vladimir Putin denounced the hysteria of the Americans who began the evacuation of their embassy in Kiev, towards the city of Viv. “An unfounded hysteria. Joe Biden’s remarks aim to raise tension in Europe”says the Kremlin, which reaffirms that it has no intention of invading Ukraine.

Signs of de-escalation but no tangible proof. The Russian Ministry of Defense does not specify how many regiments are affected by this withdrawal. On Monday again, some satellite images showed renewed activity by the Russian army on the Ukrainian borders. The withdrawal of Russian troops will only be a proven fact when independent satellite images show a massive movement of soldiers across Ukraine’s borders.

The real deadline will be February 20, the scheduled date for the end of the very important joint maneuvers by Russia and Belarus on the Ukrainian border. If these regiments leave by train, towards the East, then we can really speak of de-escalation.


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