Western intelligence services, which rely on satellite photos, have no doubts: Russia has indeed gathered tanks, drones and above all nearly 100,000 soldiers on its border with Ukraine. The Ukrainian defense minister is even convinced that the invasion will take place “at the end of JanuaryIt is not known if Russia really intends to invade its Ukrainian neighbor, at least technically he is quite ready. In April, Russia had already tested some small-scale troop movements, it had passed them off as exercises before retiring.
Defusing bilateral tensions is the goal of the virtual summit between Presidents Biden and Putin this Tuesday as the #Russia would prepare to invade the#Ukraine, early 2022, according to the American press. Westerners want to prevent a repeat of the #Crimea. pic.twitter.com/E70cDcZbCN
– TV5MONDE Info (@ TV5MONDEINFO) December 7, 2021
However, Tuesday, December 7, facing the “serious concerns“Expressed by the American president, Vladimir Poutine denied en bloc. Worse, he assures that his troops are only deployed defensively. Russia is not responsible for the current tensions, he says, it is Kiev which is preparing to regain control of its separatist regions.
What Vladimir Poutine wants above all is to curb NATO’s expansion towards the East. Let Ukraine never be part of it. That no foreign weapons system be deployed on its soil. He even demands written guarantees that no one obviously wants to give him. Alliance boss Jens Stoltenberg even reminded him that Moscow does not have the “right to interfere in the process“of a possible accession. Which remains very hypothetical even if Ukraine dreams of it.
This week was the meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Discover the content of the discussions of the @SecBlinken and his counterparts on Ukraine, the Western Balkans and arms control. #We are NATO pic.twitter.com/vbtRWe5fua
– USA in French (@USAenFrancais) December 5, 2021
Vladimir Poutine does not agree to see the United States or Turkey increasing their military cooperation with Kiev. A Ukraine transformed into a military platform for forces deemed hostile would pose a real threat to Russia. And since dialogue with President Zelensky is impossible, the Kremlin boss plans to settle the problem preventively, to avoid a real conflict later.
How far can the West go to defend Ukraine? The United States, supported by France, Britain, Germany and Italy have made it clear that they will engage alongside Ukraine to help it defend its sovereignty. Not in an active or massive way on the military ground, but thanks to new sanctions against Russia. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, there have already been some, without result. This time the idea is to hit very hard.
#JoeBiden and the EU threaten Vladimir #Putin strong sanctions, including the blocking of # NordStream2, if Russia increases its pressure on#Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/zGUP7Wylz1
– Marc-Erwan (@ vittart75) December 8, 2021
How? ‘Or’ What ? By preventing, for example, the opening of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, which is still waiting to be certified by Germany. This would cut the grass under the feet of Moscow, which is waiting to be able to export its gas to Europe. Another possibility: to get Russia out of the Swift international payment system, an essential cog in global finance that allows banks to circulate money, the measure was until now considered as a last resort.
But if the points are to be counted, for the moment it is Russia who wins: Vladimir Poutine was asking for this meeting, which poses him as an essential geopolitical partner.