Buildings torn apart by Russian missiles. The Kyiv metro transformed into an air raid shelter. Two years ago to the day, Vladimir Putin struck at the heart of Ukraine.
Today, the conflict is mired in a war of attrition. A horrible field war, with its trenches, its tanks, its shells and its cannon fodder, the likes of which had not been seen in Europe since the Second World War.
It’s whoever cracks first.
Last June, the mutiny of Yevgeni Prigojine who launched his troops to attack Moscow may have led us to believe that Russian power would crack. Nay! The head of the Wagner group died in a plane crash, a sudden death like that of so many other political opponents in Russia. The sad end of anti-corruption activist Alexeï Navalny is the most recent example.
Now, fatigue is undermining the West camp. This can be felt on the front where the Russians – who have developed a shell production capacity surpassing that of the entire NATO – have just captured the town of Avdiïvka, while the exhausted Ukrainian soldiers lack ammunition.
The outlook for supplies is not rosy.
Because of the influence of Donald Trump, the envelope of 60 billion US dollars promised by the United States is blocked in Congress. Even in Canada, support is slipping, especially among Conservative supporters who are twice as likely (43%) as in 2022 (19%) to think that Canada is doing too much for Ukraine.1.
Obviously, Canadians are not impervious to the influence of MAGA (Make America Great Again) who now make distrust of Ukraine a sign of loyalty to Trump. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson attracted a full house during a visit to Alberta in January, just before going to interview Vladimir Putin, who used him as a megaphone for his propaganda .
But more than ever, it is essential to redouble our efforts.
Since the start of the war, Canada has spoken much louder than it has actually acted. The invasion of Ukraine exposed the weakness of its defense policy.
Okay, we cannot deny the financial support of Canada, which has committed to sending 8.6 billion dollars to Ukraine since the invasion, which ranks it 8e rank out of 41 countries. Except that as a proportion of GDP, Canada’s aid comes at the bottom of the pack, as of 31e rank2.
But it is in the area of military aid that it is most troublesome. Nearly 60% of the $2.4 billion in aid promised by Canada has still not been honored, according to a compilation by Duty3.
We are talking about armored vehicles, ammunition, cameras for drones, small caliber weapons… and above all an anti-aircraft defense system (NASAMS) worth 400 million that Canada had promised with great fanfare in January 2023.
Ottawa made announcements, without having the equipment. Forced to buy them abroad, he is now waiting for delivery which does not come.
Ottawa is also stingy with the equipment it has, having only offered Ukraine 8% of the heavy weapons it has in stock while other countries have been much more generous. Recently, Denmark even announced that it would send all of its artillery to Ukraine, even if it meant manufacturing some afterwards. Meanwhile, Canada is still considering how to restart its shell production…
What’s the point of keeping weapons in reserve for a theoretical threat, when Ukraine needs them now to face a very real enemy? An enemy who wants to eradicate a democratic nation, a tyrant who endangers the international order which has ensured peace and prosperity for 80 years.
For decades, Canada allowed itself to underinvest in defense, preferring to invest in its social programs, assuming that its American neighbor would always ensure its security. It follows NATO’s aims, but at a “discount”, as Justin Massie and Nicolas-François Perron explain in the book Canada in the light of the war in Ukraine4.
In an increasingly unstable world, we will no longer be able to count on this boon. There was a time when few NATO countries met the target of 2% of their GDP to spend on defense. This is no longer the case: 18 countries out of 31 will be there at the end of the year.
Canada, which is far from the mark, at 1.38% of GDP, was pressed by the Secretary General of NATO to set a date for reaching the target. But that would cost taxpayers about $20 billion more per year.
Will this money be found by reducing other expenses, by going into more debt, by increasing taxes? This difficult debate will have to take place among the general public.
You don’t win a war with empty press releases. Do we want to let Putin win and further destabilize the planet? Let’s not forget that with the Arctic barrier melting, Russia is becoming closer to us than ever.
1. Check the polls on support for Ukraine
2. Consult the Ukraine Support Tracker
3. Read “Canada struggles to keep military aid promises to Ukraine”
4. Consult “Canada in the light of the war in Ukraine: thinking about security and defense in an emerging world”