Negotiations in the National Assembly continue as a censure motion by the New Popular Front is set for discussion. Prime Minister François Bayrou’s policy statement has led to cautious responses from the Socialist Party, which is divided over supporting or censuring the government. While Bayrou proposes pension reforms and other concessions, internal conflicts persist within the PS, with some members advocating against censure, complicating the party’s stance as they weigh options ahead of budget discussions.
Continued Negotiations and Uncertainty in the National Assembly
After hours of deliberation, the National Assembly is set to address the motion of censure initiated by a faction of the New Popular Front (NFP) this Thursday afternoon, January 16. This development follows Prime Minister François Bayrou’s general policy statement, where he opted not to request a vote of confidence. Should a majority in the National Assembly support the motion, it could lead to the government’s downfall; however, this outcome seems unlikely as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has indicated they won’t pursue censure against the new administration just yet.
Socialist Party’s Hesitation Amidst Internal Divisions
Similar hesitance appears to characterize the Socialist Party (PS), which is convening for a national bureau meeting. In contrast to their swift censure of Michel Barnier’s government last October, the PS is currently more cautious. First Secretary Olivier Faure stated on Tuesday evening, shortly after Bayrou’s address, “We will censure… unless we have a clear answer” regarding pensions.
Clarification on pensions was provided the following day when Bayrou presented three potential scenarios after the ‘conclave’ on pensions. This meeting aims to engage social partners over three months to discuss the future of the 2023 reform. The options outlined were: maintaining the current text amid disagreement, drafting a bill if there’s complete agreement, or improving the pension system with partial agreement. The PS’s demand for parliamentary involvement remains crucial, regardless of the overall consensus.
In addition to pension discussions, the Socialists have secured other victories. Minister Élisabeth Borne announced the abandonment of previously planned job cuts in National Education, Health Insurance spending will rise by 3.3%, surpassing the prior government’s 2.8% projection, and a new tax targeting high wealth is under consideration to curb tax optimization. These concessions reflect the government’s responsiveness to the Socialist Party’s requests.
However, internal divisions persist within the PS regarding the censure vote. Patrick Kanner, leading the socialist senators, raised concerns in the Senate about potential new savings measures from the government, hinting at censure as a possibility. Reports indicate that some prominent local leaders advocate against voting for censure, much to the dismay of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who warned that the Socialists must choose between supporting the government or voting for censure, even threatening to field La France Insoumise candidates against any PS deputies who oppose the motion.
The Socialists are resisting these pressures, with one PS deputy asserting the need for a unified vote within the group. “We don’t want to be either Macron’s doormat or Mélenchon’s doormat,” remarked deputy Arthur Delaporte in a recent statement following extensive group discussions that have yet to yield a consensus. The path forward remains unclear, as the 66 PS deputies grapple with differing opinions on whether to censure or await the upcoming budget discussions. François Hollande, having supported motions against Barnier, hinted that Bayrou’s government, including several former ministers, could potentially endure until 2027, leaving the political landscape in a state of flux.