Unsurprisingly, the coalition between Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons should lose its relative majority in the Assembly at the end of the second round, three weeks after the thunderclap of dissolution.
There was little doubt about the outcome. When Emmanuel Macron spoke on Sunday, June 9, to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly after his camp’s defeat in the European elections, the head of state’s relative majority was hanging by a thread. This thread definitively gave way during the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 30, with a very clear decline in the presidential coalition.
According to the results communicated by the Ministry of the Interior on the night of Sunday June 30 to Monday July 1, the alliance of Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons comes third, at 20.04%, and can theoretically hope to keep between 70 and 100 seats at the end of the second round (according to initial projections in seats to be taken with caution), far, very far, from the 250 seats it has had since 2022.
For the outgoing deputies and the center-right candidates, everything started in a hurry, on the evening of June 9. “There is a lot of stress, they are looking at the results of the European elections, but the legislative elections are not the same thing. It is very unclear”whispered a majority leader in the middle of the campaign.
In order to limit the damage, several figures from the presidential camp, such as Bruno Le Maire or Edouard Philippe, have decided to distance themselves from Emmanuel Macron and his brutal decision to dissolve the Assembly. Others simply omitted to refer to the president and the majority, considered too negative, in their electoral propaganda.
At the same time, the Head of State spoke several times, during a long press conference at the start of the campaign, then during trips to the field or interventions in the media. He gradually hardened his electoral arguments against “the extremes”without distinction or hierarchy, whose victory would lead, according to the head of state, to the “civil war”.
In the first round of these legislative elections, the presidential coalition still did better than in the European elections, when it only won 14.6%. “There was a surge in participation. Perhaps the presidential dramatization had a small effect on an electorate who had taken refuge in abstention in the European elections”analyzes political scientist Olivier Rouquan, who qualifies this slight rebound.
“As in the European elections, we are seeing a vote of condemnation against Emmanuel Macron, because he has terribly personalised the exercise of power.”
Olivier Rouquan, political scientistto franceinfo
If the presidential coalition has limited the damage in some of its strongholds since 2017, such as Yvelines or Hauts-de-Seine, some of its personalities have not resisted the decline observed everywhere else. Within the government, for example, the ministers Fadila Khattabi (Côte-d’Or), Dominique Faure (Haute-Garonne) or Sabrina Agresti-Roubache (Bouches-du-Rhône) came third, while Guillaume Kasbarian (Eure- et-Loir), Agnès Pannier-Runacher (Pas-de-Calais) or Frédéric Valletoux (Seine-et-Marne) are on waivers for the second round, behind the RN.
For the presidential camp, a priority question now arises: in the event of third place and possible qualification for the second round, should we withdraw to limit the risk that the National Rally and its allies could have an absolute majority on July 7? The number of speeches increased on Sunday evening, each time with nuances that prevent the center from speaking clearly with one voice.
On the one hand, there are those who practice the “neither-nor” against the RN and La France Insoumise. The president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, thus called for a vote for the candidate “the most republican” in the second round of the legislative elections, excluding a “a certain number of candidates” of the left alliance.
On the other hand, some preferred to target the extreme right without mentioning the candidates of the New Popular Front. Emmanuel Macron, for his part, called for a “large gathering clearly Democrat and Republican for the second round” facing the National Rally, without publicly mentioning the left alliance.
“The President of the Republic looks at the constituencies on a case-by-case basis.”
A close friend of the head of stateat France Télévisions
“Not a single vote should go to the National Rally” in the second round, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said. “We will withdraw in favor of candidates able to beat the RN and with whom we share the essential: the values of the Republic”for its part explained the Renaissance party in a press release.
Finally, several figures from the macronie have clearly included La France insoumise in the Republican front against the RN. “I am convinced that despite the unsociable personalities who haunt La France insoumise, first and foremost the first of them [Jean-Luc Mélenchon]they will not be in power”explained Roland Lescure, Minister of Industry, on the social network X.
The latter therefore called for “to block the extreme right without any qualms by voting for the best-placed alternative candidate”. “We must vote for the candidate who faces an RN candidate in the second round, whoever he may be”added Clément Beaune, former Minister of Transport, one of the rare Macronists not to have placed La France Insoumise and the RN on an equal footing.
Beyond its attitude in the constituencies where it finds itself far behind the contenders for victory, the presidential coalition will try to keep the largest possible contingent of deputies in the new National Assembly, with the cards reshuffled between its different components: Horizons will no longer have a parliamentary group (at least 15 deputies), while the MoDem is not sure of keeping its own, which could weaken its leaders in view of the succession of Emmanuel Macron in 2027.
For its part, the Renaissance group would continue to shrink significantly: the presidential party had already gone from 267 deputies before the 2022 legislative elections to 170 until the dissolution. At the end of the second round, it should be satisfied with 53 to 71 seats, according to Ipsos-Talan projections. These three groups could thus find themselves in the opposition if the RN and its allies have a majority and are entrusted with the task of forming a government. The legislative elections, much more than the European elections, would then represent a fatal blow to Macronism.