Pierre Servent, specialist in defense and military strategy issues and honorary reserve colonel, was the guest of the “8:30 a.m. franceinfo”, Friday 24 February 2023. Dislocation of the Russian army, nuclear threat, role of China, delivery of weapons and geopolitical failures… He answers questions from Jules de Kiss and Julie Marie-Leconte.
Scenario for the next few months: “A dislocation of the Russian military tool”
Pierre Servent favors for the next few months the scenario of a “Collapse of the Russian Expeditionary Force”. The specialist in defense matters points out the “malfunctions” of Putin’s army, with conscripts and reservists “inexperienced” And “poorly formed”and a mode of command that “is not decentralized at all, not suitable for modern warfare”. On the contrary, Ukraine has already “a modern mode of command” with in particular the “digitization of the battlefield.” Kyiv is winning a “defensive victory”. “I therefore favor the scenario of a dislocation of the military tool”he concludes.
DIRECT: “We are able to put an end to Russian aggression this year”, insists Volodymyr Zelensky, one year after the invasion of his country
Observers feared a full-scale offensive after a year of the war, but the Russians did not even “not the means” to lead it according to Pierre Servent. Moscow leads “an offensive for several months on 700 kilometers of front“, explains the specialist. “thrust with a riot of artillery” but with two to three times fewer shells fired per day, because of “stock difficulties”. 1,200 heavy tanks have also been destroyed since the start of the war and Moscow has not “not spare parts” to rebuild his fleet. “All that gives 100 meters conquered here or there for terrible levels of loss”concludes Pierre Servent, who believes that Russia “can’t do better”.
Nuclear weapons: “I don’t think it’s in the idea of the generals around Putin”
“I don’t think there is a nuclear threat”, assures Pierre Servent. Three arguments remove the possibility of a Russian nuclear attack according to him. First, the political deadlock: Putin “would instantly lose the support of China, India and the international community.” There is also a military blockage. The nuclear weapon would also kill Russian soldiers and even affect beyond the battlefield. Then the radioactive cloud, too, “does not stop at borders”.
The last reason is psychological: “Putin is a man who does not want to die” and nuclear weapons “would take this war into another dimension.” “Again, I don’t believe that’s Putin’s goal and I don’t believe it’s in the idea of the generals who are around Putin”he concludes.
China’s role: Beijing “is very embarrassed”
China would like to play the role of mediator in this war, assures Pierre Servent, but it “is very embarrassed” by the behavior of Russia. First, because Moscow is suffering from “many failures” and then because China can’t manage to “convince Putin to move”. Beijing would like to switch to “a phase of negotiation”. “China prefers soft power strategies, especially through economics”explains Pierre Servent.
Delivery of weapons: the response of the allies is “sometimes too graduated”
In front of “escalation in terror” of Russia, Ukraine’s allies respond with a “graduated response”. “We can sometimes regret that this response is too graduated”, confides Pierre Servent. According to him, it should “go faster” in arms delivery. The Westerners promised light tanks and heavy tanks. The first French light armored vehicles should arrive in Ukraine by the end of the week, the government assures us, but the delivery of heavy tanks will “to take time” according to Pierre Servent. “We should also start training Ukrainians to fly planes”continues the specialist, while Westerners have so far never responded favorably to kyiv’s request to receive combat aircraft.
Geopolitics: “It’s a succession of strategic failures” for Russia
While he wanted to weaken Ukraine, Putin gave kyiv “his great patriotic war”he has “united the people of Ukraine”. The Russian president also hoped to weaken the Europeans, but today he sees a “EU consolidation”. The United States are also presented as the big winners of this war, with the “return from a central position” in Europe. The war has also “resurrected” NATO, which Putin wanted to bury. And even on the side of its Chinese ally, it risks losing on all counts: China “play the ally card for the moment because there is an ideological alliance”, explains Pierre Servent, but if Russia loses the war, Beijing knows that it can “buying back Russian energy resources at a discount.”
Find the entire “8:30 franceinfo” of Friday, February 24: