discreet favorite against the “Erdogan machine”, who is the centrist Kemal Kiliçdaroglu?

With his full mustache and his frail silhouette, he is a quiet force in the political landscape in Turkey. A fine connoisseur of administrations, he carries the image of a reserved technocrat. Yet it was with great fanfare, on March 6, that Kemal Kiliçdarogluethe president of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has been nominated as a presidential candidate on behalf of the “Table of Six”, the country’s main opposition coalition.

“The Gates of the Nation Covenant [nom officiel de la coalition] are open to anyone who shares our dream”, he said that evening, in front of a compact crowd gathered in Ankara. A unifying speech, the trademark of the 74-year-old politician, who has been sailing since 2002 between the sometimes contrary currents of his party. He now finds himself at the head of a coalition bringing together conservatives and liberals, Islamists and secularists, nationalists and pro-Europeans… With one priority: bringing down President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for twenty years.

As the campaign officially begins on Saturday March 18, at the whistle of the Turkish Electoral Commission (YSK), Kemal Kiliçdaroglu could end up winning, according to the latest national polls, compiled by Euronews (in English). By the first round of the election, set for May 14, the great hope of the opposition will try to rally at all costs – and above all to convince those disappointed with President Erdogan and the AKP, his Islamo-conservative party. A difficult mission, but not impossible for the center-left candidate, who describes himself above all as a pragmatist.

A career at the Ministry of Finance

Without making waves, Kemal Kiliçdaroglue reoriented the line of the CHP on several points. In two decades, the party inherited from Mustafa Kemal Atatürk – the modern and republican “father of Turkey” – has thus adopted less clear-cut positions vis-à-vis conservative Muslims but also Kurdish minorities, in particular, to whom he is reputed to be close.

Native of a village in eastern Turkey, member of a large family with modest origins, Kiliçdaroglue studied economics and then joined the Ministry of Finance, where he ended his career in the 1990s at the head of the country’s Social Security. In 2002, then retired, he turned to the CHP and was elected deputy for the first time, in an Istanbul constituency. An electoral success that he repeated in 2007, gaining the rank of vice-president of his party.

“He’s a real bureaucrat, who has made a long commitment to what has become the main opposition party”describes Bayram Balci, researcher at the Center for International Research at Sciences Po Paris. “He has always challenged the management of the government and its excesses, while increasing the consensus behind him.” In 2008, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu entered into frontal opposition with the Justice and Development Party (AKP), denouncing its corrupt practices – attracting the wrath of its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then Prime Minister.

“Kiliçdaroglu has often been criticized for a certain lack of charisma, but he is far from being insignificant.”

Bayram Balci, researcher at Sciences Po Paris

at franceinfo

From 2009, his popularity grew after his candidacy for municipal elections in Istanbul. Despite his defeat against the AKP, he took over the leadership of the People’s Republican Party the following year. In 2013, the CHP supported the Gezi protest movement, very active in the country’s major cities. But it was in June 2017 that Kemal Kiliçdaroglue signs one of his greatest feats, by organizing a march of more than 400 km between Ankara and Istanbul in order to demand the release of a CHP deputy imprisoned for having divulged information relating to the Turkish secret services . “He scored a lot of points by unifying the currents of his party, which was not an easy task”points out Bayram Balci.

A “balancer” who wants to brew wide

Because before rising to the head of a coalition that was heterogeneous to say the least, Kemal Kiliçdaroglue had to agree the different components of the HPC. “It’s a party that we present as social democrats, it’s moreover the line of Kiliçdarogluebut other strong trends are emerging”, notes Nicolas Manceau, lecturer in political science at the University of Bordeaux and associate researcher at the French Institute for Anatolian Studies. Historically secular and Western-oriented, the CHP “has also had nationalist, even sovereignist tensions in recent years”.

Faced with this, Kemal Kiliçdaroglue displayed pro-European positions and established contacts with political parties in the EU. The one who learned the language of Molière in his youth has already met several times the executives of the French Socialist Party for example, and had moreover been congratulated by the Socialists and Democrats of the European Parliament when he was appointed as head of the CHP in 2010. .

Follower of the outstretched hand policy, the center-left leader surprised his own supporters by proposing, in October 2022, a law guaranteeing the right to wear the veil within the country’s institutions. “He also worked for the integration of veiled women within the party, recalls Nicolas Manceau. It is a sign of openness to a conservative electorate, perhaps more rural, with stronger religious sensitivities: Erdogan’s electorate in short.

In his race for the highest office in the state, Kemal Kiliçdaroglue track down compromises. “He is a tightrope walker, he will seek support everywhere, without it being too obvious”, summarizes Nicolas Manceau. Thus, regarding the Kurds, a repressed minority in Turkey “but which counts for more than 10% of the voters”, recalls the specialist, the opposition candidate is walking on eggshells. “He is attempting a rapprochement while being careful not to offend the nationalists of the Good Party (IYI), hostile to the Kurdish struggle, and who are part of his coalition”explains Nicolas Manceau.

During the primary to designate the candidate of the Alliance of the nation, the president of the Good Party, Meral Aksener, had left the “Table of six” with a bang. Support of other CHP figures, such as the very popular mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, she finally returned to the alliance on March 6, at the cost of negotiations on the possible vice-presidents. “It is very important for Kiliçdaroglu to keep the nationalist electorate, which weighs heavily in Turkey”emphasizes Nicolas Manceau.

If elected, he is ready to scuttle the presidential office

For many observers, the coalition led by Kemal Kiliçdaroglue should logically break up after the presidential and legislative elections, organized at the same time. “Even if the opposition wins, this bloc will split the next day, that’s normal and that’s what is expectedannounces Bayram Balci. Because the project that holds this alliance is to put an end to the presidential system that Erdogan has established. In 2017, the latter had indeed succeeded in changing the country’s Constitution, passing executive power from the hands of the Prime Minister to those of the President, in this case himself.

On March 6, Kemal Kiliçdaroglue thus unveiled its “roadmap for the transition to a strengthened parliamentary system”, published on the CHP website (In turkish) and decided by its coalition. “That’s the main objective of the members of the alliance, and they should be able to agree on that, continues Bayram Balci. But beyond that, the real work begins. Will they succeed in forming a parliamentary majority to govern?

“The idea is to put an end to authoritarian excesses, to restore its independence to justice, to the Central Bank, to stop centering everything around a single leader.”

Nicolas Manceau, lecturer in political science at the University of Bordeaux

at franceinfo

In case of victory, Kiliçdaroglue would arrive at the head of a bloodless country, where inflation has peaked in recent months, up to 85% in October. “There is a lot to be done also to repair Turkey’s image and diplomatic relations”, adds Nicolas Manceau. Without forgetting the reconstruction of the eleven provinces devastated by the earthquakes of last February, which killed more than 48,000 people in Turkey, according to the latest report reported by the official Anadolu agency. (In turkish). “In this area, the ruling party is better armed, notes Bayram Balci. The AKP has builders, entrepreneurs, capital… It’s Erdogan’s big machine.”

A “machine” against which Kemal Kiliçdaroglueless charismatic than the thundering Turkish president, intends to present himself as a more peaceful alternative. “If Turkish voters choose to vote for him, it will not necessarily be for his personal qualities, warns Nicolas Manceau, but above all to get rid of Erdogan.”