franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Emmanuel Macron is still well ahead of voting intentions in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, updated Friday, March 25. According to this poll, outgoing President Emmanuel Macron collects 29.5% of voting intentions (margin of error ± 3 points), ahead of Marine Le Pen at 18.5% (± 2.6 points). Jean-Luc Mélenchon, still in third position, gained 1 point at 13.5% (± 2.3 points), ahead of Éric Zemmour, stable at 10.5% (± 2.1 points).
Valérie Pécresse is at 10% (± 2 points), ahead of the EELV candidate Yannick Jadot, who loses half a point to 6% of the voting intentions (margin of error ± 1.6 points).
Behind, Fabien Roussel is 3.5% (± 1.2 point) ahead of Jean Lassalle (2.5%, ± 1 point), Anne Hidalgo (2.5%, ± 1 point) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2.5%, ± 1 point). The latter two earn 0.5%. Finally, Philippe Poutou remains at 1% (± 0.7 points), Nathalie Arthaud at 0.5% (± 0.5 points).
To date, 65% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote in the first round, on April 10 (range: between 63 and 67%). And of those who are certain to vote, 64% have made their choice and it will be final, while 36% believe that their vote can still change.
Emmanuel Macron’s voters are those who are the most sure of their choice: 80% now say that their intention to vote is final. Those of Marine Le Pen are 70% sure of their choice. They are 71% for Eric Zemmour. Jean-Luc Mélenchon displays, for his part, a rate of 70%. It is among the voters of Valérie Pécresse and Yannick Jadot that we find the most undecided. For Valérie Pécresse, 45% believe they can still change their minds. It is much more pronounced for Yannick Jadot (63%), with by far the most hesitant voters.
This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France until the first round of the presidential election and is based on the methodology of “rolling poll”, or rolling survey. Every day, from Sunday to Friday, about 500 people registered on the electoral lists are questioned. The results published on a daily basis systematically report the last three samples questioned, to obtain a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 people.
This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France published on March 25 is based on a total sample of 1,718 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. The sample was questioned by Internet and was constituted according to the method of quotas (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).