Paying directly with your credit card or mobile phone to board public transport would convince thousands of occasional users to take the bus or metro more often, reveals a working document from the Regional Metropolitan Transport Authority (ARTM). However, it anticipates financial risks behind this transition.
Around 67% of additional trips caused by the digital reform would come from “occasional” or “sporadic” customers, in other words people using public transport less than once a week, we learn in the Digital Project business plan. of mobility (PNM), which we obtained.
End of August, The Press revealed that the vast digital transition that the ARTM is preparing would cost more than 144 million, with a budget for contingencies of 18.5 million, for a total of 162 million.
The organization estimates, however, that these investments would bring in nearly $364 million in benefits by 2035, in addition to exploding the number of trips to total 155 million within 12 years.
In short, occasional or sporadic users would account for 104 million of these 155 million additional trips. The stated objective of the ARTM is thus to “convert” these episodic users into “regular” users of public transport.
Called to react, ARTM spokesperson Simon Charbonneau indicated that his group “cannot comment on a document which has not been formally adopted by its board of directors”. “However, I can tell you that the mobilization of partners is energizing,” he argued.
A priori, this digital shift must be done in several stages: first, in 2024, we would add a mobile recharge system for the OPUS card. Then, in 2025 or 2026, payment by credit card and the online purchase of tickets validated with the telephone would be activated. Finally, in 2027, an integrated payment system would be deployed, possibly using a mobile application, bringing together the metro, bus, REM, car sharing, bike sharing, taxi or even carpooling.
Unsurprisingly, it is the purchase of tickets by telephone that would increase public transport ridership the most. This measure alone would be responsible for a 31% increase in journeys. Payment by credit card, however, follows closely with 28%. A better trip planner would also help increase trips by 26%.
The ARTM also notes that the introduction of new ticket media to replace OPUS, such as QR codes, will make it possible to “develop tailor-made packages and price offers”, particularly through employers, but also organizers of major events and the municipalities themselves.
Several risks to consider
Such a major transition will not be without risk, however, warns the organization. In its report, the ARTM reveals the broad outlines of what it calls “the sensitivity analysis” of its transition.
First, a delay of just one year in the delivery of the project would increase the bill by 3.3%, for a total of 5.3 million. Worse still, such a delay would also cause monetary flows – the inflows and outflows of money – to fall by 39.6 million, a fall of 17%.
We still do not know what would happen to these increases if the delay was several years. According to our sources, there is still concern internally and in the transport world about the ARTM’s ability to deliver this project in four years, given the imposing “technological development” that this requires. The idea of such a digital transition had emerged in 2018, but has never seen the light of day.
Everything will also depend on the economic context, adds the Authority.
An interest rate increase of about 1% alone would increase the total cost by $7 million. And if a jump of one percentage point in inflation occurs, we would still have to find almost 2.2 million more.
A reduction of around 10% in anticipated travel would also significantly reduce the monetary flows linked to the project by 36.3 million, or around 16%.
By adding up all these costs, this first warning launched by the ARTM therefore shows a probable increase of 9% in the bill, the equivalent of $14.6 million. In other words, if all goes well, the cost of the digital transition would reach nearly 177 million.
Among other dangers that have already been targeted, the organization has also cited in the past the “transition” that will have to be made with the ticketing system of the current supplier, but also the probable delay in making information available for users “precise and complete”.
Major subsidy, or not?
For the moment, the ARTM puts the “estimated subsidy” from the different levels of government at 70%, or approximately 114 million. In this scenario, the net contribution of the ARTM would be a little over 48 million. However, this scenario is based on the hypothesis that the Authority will obtain a subsidy from the government as a “major project”. If this were not the case, Quebec’s aid would drop by 22 percentage points, point out the experts in the document, who specify that the ARTM would then have to pay no less than 84.5 million alone.
The story so far
August 22, 2023
The Press reveals that a McGill University student managed to program software to reload the OPUS card online with his cell phone. The news pushes the ARTM to react, ensuring that the work is underway.
August 31, 2023
The ARTM presents to its administrators a plan of 162 million which should allow users to enter modernity within four years, in 2027. Quebec then asks to “get ahead of the schedule” of the system.
October 23, 2023
The ARTM officially submits the business plan for its digital transition.