The far-right party and its allies came third in the second round of the legislative elections, behind the New Popular Front and the presidential coalition Ensemble. This was due to withdrawals in the second round, which penalized the RN candidates.
A result in the form of a surprise, a week after the victory of the National Rally in the first round. The New Popular Front became, on Sunday July 7, the leading political force in the next Assembly, following the second round of the legislative elections. The left-wing alliance obtained between 180 seats in the National Assembly, according to the final results transmitted by the Ministry of the Interior. Given third in the opinion polls between the two rounds, Ensemble finally came second with 163 seats, ahead of the National Rally and its allies. The far-right bloc was only third, with 143 seats. The cause was the massive effect played by the withdrawals linked to the Republican front.
After the first round, 215 candidates qualified for the second round in a three-way or four-way race had withdrawn to block the far right. A massive reaction to the historic score of the National Rally and its allies on the evening of June 30: the latter had obtained 33.2% of the votes cast, according to the Ministry of the Interior. A week later, the far-right candidates were finally defeated in 173 of the 215 constituencies affected by these withdrawals.
These withdrawals were “formidable, absolutely effective”comments Gaël Sliman, president of the Odoxa polling institute. “On the evening of the first round, there was a big winner, the National Rally, which could hope for a relative majority at worst and an absolute majority at best with its Ciottist allies. There were 300 three-way races [impliquant le RN], recalls the pollster. These Republican withdrawals changed everything.”
In the 14th constituency of Bouches-du-Rhône, the outgoing MP Anne-Laurence Petel had refused to withdraw in favor of the New Popular Front candidate Jean-David Ciot. Their far-right rival, Gérault Verny, who came out on top on the evening of the first round, won on Sunday evening.
“The candidate who withdraws and asks to vote against the National Rally, it is a very strong symbolic sacrifice. It is very effective, it had a massive effect.”
Gaël Sliman, President of Odoxato franceinfo
Gaël Sliman adds that abstainers from the first round were also able to mobilize in the second round, faced with the prospect of a relative or absolute majority of the extreme right in the Palais-Bourbon. Another factor played a role in the last days of the campaign, according to Gaël Sliman: the missed interviews of certain RN candidates with local media and the revelations concerning racist, anti-Semitic or even climate-sceptic remarks by many of them.
In the constituencies where the RN and its allies could win, 125 candidates from the New Popular Front withdrew, compared to 80 candidates from the presidential bloc Ensemble and its allies. In fact, the withdrawals benefited the former majority more: on Sunday evening, the presidential camp won 86 of the 215 constituencies affected by Republican withdrawals, compared to 57 for the left alliance.
An estimation Ipsos-Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP details the transfer of votes between the first and second rounds. It reveals that the voters of the New Popular Front followed, more than the others, these Republican withdrawals. In the case of a duel between Ensemble and the National Rally in the second round, 72% of voters who voted for the left in the first round mobilized for the presidential camp.
In the case of a duel between Les Républicains and the National Rally in the second round, 70% of the voters of the New Popular Front chose to vote for the LR candidate. Also in this case, the voters who had voted Ensemble in the first round were 79% to have voted for the right-wing candidate.
In the scenario of a second round opposing a far-right candidate to a socialist, ecologist or communist candidate, a little more than half (54%) of Ensemble voters participated in the Republican front. On the other hand, only 43% voted for the left-wing candidate in the second round when the latter was labeled La France insoumise.
“You have massive reports from the left on Ensemble candidates to oppose the RN. Even the reports from Ensemble are very strong on the left to oppose the RN.”
Brice Teinturier, Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos Franceon France 2
For Republican or various right-wing voters, 29% chose a socialist, environmentalist or communist candidate over the RN, but 34% preferred to vote for the extreme right and 37% abstained. Only 26% of LR and various right-wing voters voted for an insubordinate candidate against the RN on Sunday. Some 38% of them preferred the far right and 36% boycotted the polling booths, according to the same estimate.
“Both sides have still mobilised well. There has been a clear improvement produced by these withdrawals.”
Gaël Sliman, President of Odoxato franceinfo
“The RN continues to worry the French”stressed Brice Teinturier on Sunday evening, on the France 2 set.
If opt-outs work “extremely efficiently”, “the republican front no longer really exists as a spontaneous reflex of voters”, Odoxa pointed out in an opinion poll published on Thursday. Another survey by the institute, published the same day, showed that 30% of respondents wanted a far-right government and that 29% of respondents saw such a prospect as “neither a good nor a bad thing”. The consequence of a “successful de-demonization of the RN and its leaders”the study notes. The blockade vote “had been massive in 2002, then still very present in 2017, it has been much less so since 2022”, warns Odoxa.
“The electoral reality is that the RN continues to progress. There is a trompe-l’oeil effect this evening with the withdrawals, but the only party with momentum is the RN.”
Gaël Sliman, President of Odoxato franceinfo
“The National Rally embodies more than ever the only alternation”insisted the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, on Sunday evening, adding that his party would not fall into “no political compromise”The latter castigated “the alliance of dishonor” which deprives the French “of a recovery policy”. “From the point of view of the RN electorate, there could be the impression of a theft of victory, of a democratic denial”analyzes Gaël Sliman.