The French have taken off their masks almost everywhere and put away their vaccination pass, but they have not yet finished with the Covid-19 epidemic. While the fifth wave had begun to decline, a return to the upside has begun since the beginning of March. This epidemic resumption in France revives criticism of the lifting of health measures by the government, considered premature by many epidemiologists and infectiologists.
New cases are on the rise
Since the beginning of March, the average number of new cases, calculated over a week, has started to rise again. The daily average stood at 89,002 cases per day on Sunday, against 65,251 a week earlier. This epidemic rebound is also seen at school, after the winter holidays: 3,184 classes were closed on Friday, against 2,693 classes a week earlier.
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As a result of this resumption of the epidemic, the number of hospital admissions is no longer decreasing. On Sunday March 20, French hospitals had 1,068 new Covid-19 positive patients per day on average over a week. This resurgence of the epidemic has also been observed for several weeks in other European countries, such as the United Kingdom.
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This rebound can be explained, among other things, by the predominance of the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant. This is about 30% more contagious than its predecessor, BA.1, as infectious disease specialist Yazdan Yazdanpanah pointed out. However, this sub-variant now represents 57% of contaminations, according to the latest epidemiological point published by Public Health France on March 17.
Another explanation is to be sought on the side of vaccines. The protective effect of the reminder erodes after three months in seniors, as recalled by Drees, the statistical service of social ministries. However, more than 10% of people over 80 are not vaccinated, according to Public Health France. Some regions are also less vaccinated than the average, such as Corsica (where 67% of the population has a complete vaccination schedule) or Guyana (30%).
The government now invites people over 80 to take a second booster dose. To date, 75% of people aged 80 and over have received a first booster shot. The Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) went further than the government on Friday, estimating that the fourth dose of vaccine should be offered to people over the age of 65. “more at risk”.
Barrier gestures are less respected
Many experts also point to the relaxation of barrier gestures. Tired of two years of pandemic, some French people did not wait for the end of the mask and the suspension of the vaccine pass on March 14 to lower their guard against the virus. “The French are less careful because the message that the government is sending, with the lifting of restrictions, is that everything is going very well, when it is not really the case”epidemiologist Catherine Hill lamented in The Express.
“We released the barrier measures, the wearing of the mask and the vaccination pass too soon.also believes epidemiologist Yves Buisson in the columns of the weekly. We should have waited until May because in people’s minds, that means the epidemic is over, when it is far from the case.”
France is not an isolated case. “European countries are seeing the first effects of the casualness of their policies vis-à-vis the management of the pandemic”denounced the epidemiologist Antoine Flahault on Twitter. Faced with the increase in contamination, Austria has decided to reimpose the wearing of the mask indoors.
“We have to be quick with this virus. We must not wait for it to get ahead. We have gained ground. From wave to wave, we are gaining ground. Our objective today is not not to lose any.”
Anne-Claude Crémieux, infectiologiston franceinfo
The government defends its decision
By lifting most of the restrictions, the government has “made the right decision”assured Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health, on franceinfo. “We knew there would be a risk of a rebound”he relativized, refusing to see “a correlation” between the lifting of restrictions and the increase in the number of new cases. The Minister of Health cited the example of Germany and Italy, which “are experiencing an epidemic rebound while they have maintained the health pass and sometimes the vaccination pass” and “that they have maintained the wearing of masks in closed places”.
Olivier Véran also explained that his management of the epidemic was based on “the models of the Institut Pasteur”. These models say that “it will go up until the end of March, we risk reaching 120,000-150,000 contaminations per day, and then we expect a decrease”he defended. However, these models are based on projections potentially “too optimistic”as stated in the study posted online by the Institut Pasteur.
There is “no place” to put in place measures to curb the epidemic, he still has in The Parisian. The minister again said he expected “see the contamination rise until the end of March, before a decline in April”. Olivier Véran took the opportunity to challenge the idea that the lifting of restrictions was a gesture during the presidential campaign.
“If we had kept the measures, some would have denounced an electoral maneuver to maintain a level of fear supposedly useful to the president. When we lift them, the same people tell us that it is electoral.”
Olivier Véran, Minister of Healthin “The Parisian”
The executive’s future schedule is clear: “If we were to find that among the 65-80 year olds, the incidence rate was to rise, that the rebound would not last two weeks but three or four weeks, we will ask ourselves the question again.” Olivier Véran also specified that the government and the health authorities “encourage vulnerable people to continue to wear the mask”.