Did France rejoice too quickly about Poland?

Last fall, after eight years of Polish nationalist rule, a pro-European government was elected. But the hopes raised by this change have not yet materialized.

A few months ago, there was a deep sigh of relief when the change of power in Poland took place. In European capitals, and first in Paris, there was celebration of the defeat of the Polish ultraconservative, Eurosceptic and nationalist PIS party, which had ruled Warsaw for eight years. In its place, there was a new pro-European Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, labelled centre-right.

“Poland is back” had even tweeted Valérie Hayer, the leader of the Macronist elected representatives in the European Parliament, who was delighted with this victory, “for women’s rights, for progress and for the rule of law.”

A joy that was shared by almost all governments on the continent. They wanted to see in this Polish election a sign that the rise of the hard right was not inevitable, despite the electoral successes of the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the Hungarian Viktor Orban.

But not everything is going as planned in Poland. European diplomats, to their relief, have probably mistaken their wishes for reality. Poland has certainly changed its political majority, it criticizes Brussels less often and less strongly, but a series of recent decisions raise questions. The Polish Parliament has just authorized police to fire live ammunition at the border to dissuade migrants from entering the country, a law adopted almost unanimously. Poland accuses Belarus, a neighboring country and ally of Moscow, of encouraging the arrival of irregular migrants, a strategy of destabilization, according to it. The NGO Amnesty International is concerned about this new law which risks “to weaken the rule of law.”

Another example, on women’s rights. Abortion is virtually forbidden, and those who assist in abortion risk three years in prison. The deputies refused to modify the law, by a small majority at the end of last week. The coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk is divided on this very sensitive subject, in a largely religious Poland. It is therefore unlikely that the right to abortion will progress in the short term, far from European hopes.

And the European capitals remain very silent. On the one hand, because Poland is a key state in the context of the war in Ukraine. It is the country that spends the most on its weapons, in proportion to its national wealth. A solid ally. Then, it is a powerful nation in the European institutions, the 5th in number of deputies in the Strasbourg Parliament, just after Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The Poles are very influential within the first political group, that of the European right, there too allies not to be offended.