Currently, more than 500 million people in the world have diabetes. The number of people suffering from this disease is expected to increase drastically, especially in low-income countries.
In just over thirty years, the number of diabetes cases worldwide has quadrupled, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). And it’s probably not over: a study by the British scientific journal The Lancet published Thursday, June 22 suggests that this disease will affect 1.3 billion people by 2050, against 529 million people in 2021.
Rising from 3.2% in 1990 to 6.1% in 2021, the prevalence of this pathology, i.e. the number of patients in a given population, should reach 9.8% in 2050, according to this study. of which The world echoed.
From the data collected by the Global Burden of Disease, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), in Seattle (USA), the study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, calculates estimates prevalence and burden of diabetes in 204 countries and territories, for 25 age groups.
Type 2 diabetes ‘largely preventable’
Currently, the most affected regions of the world are Oceania (12.3% prevalence) and North Africa and the Middle East (9.3%). The study suggests that in Qatar, 76% of 75-79 year olds are affected by the disease. In 2050, the researchers model, these rates are expected to rise further: 16.8% for North Africa and the Middle East, and 11.3% for Latin America and the Caribbean. Of the 204 territories studied, 89 should show a rate above 10%.
This chronic disease can take two forms: type 1 diabetes, or insulin-dependent diabetes, which corresponds to an insufficient production of insulin by the body – the causes of which are unknown – and type 2 diabetes, linked to its misuse and which is characterized by the presence of a chronic excess of sugar in the blood.
This type 2 diabetes, which concerns 96% of patients, mainly affects adults with risk factors such as overweight, lack of exercise and a genetic predisposition. “But it now occurs more and more often in children as well”, says the WHO. It is more particularly in type 2 diabetes that researchers have been interested, describing it as “largely avoidable”.
“Structural racism and geographical inequalities”, accelerators of the disease
According to the researchers, this increase in the prevalence of diabetes is mainly explained by the increase in obesity, itself caused by multiple factors. “The prevention and control of type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge,” they write. “The rapid rate at which diabetes is developing is not only alarming, but also a challenge for all health systems around the world, especially given that the disease also increases the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke. cerebrovascular”, warns Dr. Liane Ong, lead author and scientist at IHME.
According to the study of The Lancet, by 2045, more than three-quarters of adults with diabetes will live in low-income countries. In a separate article published Thursday, also in The Lancet, researchers point out “the role of structural racism and geographical inequalities” in exposure to diabetes.
In France, a higher prevalence overseas
Thus, in the United States, the prevalence is almost twice as high among Hispanic Americans as among whites. In Australia, Aboriginal populations suffer the damage of unequal access to diagnosis and treatment, with rates of hospitalization and death related to diabetes four times higher than in the general population.
In France, according to Public Health France, the highest prevalence rates are observed in the overseas departments. “At the same age structure, the prevalence is twice higher in Reunion than in the whole territory. It is 1.8 times higher in Guadeloupe and 1.5 times higher in Guyana and Martinique.reports SPF.
To prevent diabetes, the WHO recommends“achieve and maintain a healthy weight”to practice at least 30 minutes of physical activity per day, to have a healthy diet and not to smoke tobacco.