Detox. Was the NUPES on the verge of victory in the 2022 legislative elections?

Did Nupes come very close to victory in the last legislative elections? At the summer universities of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon affirmed itfigures in support: I say to young people, and especially those in the first age group, that is to say those up to the age of 26: if 2% more of you, since you vote 50% for the Nupes, if two more points had voted, we would have won. »

Information taken from LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon bases himself on the “ number of votes we lacked in the second round in the constituencies where we lost 10, 20, 30 votes “. According to a calculation by Le Monde, these constituencies lacked “51,507 votes in the Nupes to obtain a relative majority”.

In 2022, 5.2 million 18-24 year olds were registered on the electoral lists according to INSEE. If we take 2% of these young people, or about 103,000, and assume, as Jean-Luc Mélenchon does, that half would have voted Nupes, we arrive at about 51,500 votes. What to win, then. A completely theoretical reasoning that suffers from many biases. Jean-Luc Mélenchon in particular forgets to specify that these almost 52,000 additional votes should have been distributed only in those constituencies where a few votes were missing from the Nupes.

Obviously, a party can only know after the results in which constituencies he should have worked hard to win notes Mathieu Gallard, research director at the Ipsos institute. Without counting that it would also have been necessary that the young people who do not vote Nupes, do not vote in the constituencies in question.

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