(Jerusalem) Israel has set itself the objective of destroying the Islamist movement Hamas, but the future of the Gaza Strip hangs on the still vague scenarios of Israel which dreams of cutting all links with the Palestinian territory.
“Only one thing is clear, Gaza will no longer be governed by Hamas when this war is over,” Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy assures AFP, as the army accelerates its preparations for a ground offensive .
In all the scenarios on the continuation of the conflict, Israel announced only one goal in its response to the October 7 attacks on its soil by the Islamist movement which killed at least 1,400 people according to the authorities: “To wipe out Hamas. »
This Palestinian group took power in Gaza in 2007, two years after the Israeli withdrawal from this territory and following a struggle with Fatah, the party of the president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mahmoud Abbas.
The small territory of 362 km2 with 2.4 million inhabitants has since been subject to an Israeli and Egyptian land, sea and air blockade.
Israel, which de facto controls Gaza’s borders, is seen by the international community as responsible for the territory’s basic needs, such as food.
“New reality”
Under the incessant Israeli bombardments for three weeks which have left more than 4,600 dead, the population of Gaza, around 80% of whom already have refugee status, fears having to flee the territory at the end of this war, possibly towards Egypt, and to experience a new “Nakba” (catastrophe), as during the exodus of 1948.
Israel has not specified what would happen in Gaza if its war goal is achieved.
“We are discussing possibilities with our partners,” replied the Israeli government spokesperson to AFP.
In 16 years, the Israeli government had never considered an outright overthrow of Hamas, despite the previous wars in Gaza.
The only certainty is that Israel has not once mentioned the possibility of a new military and even less civil occupation of the territory.
And no one sees Israel itself taking on the responsibility, financial burden and danger of direct control over 2.4 million Palestinians.
On the contrary, Israel’s ultimate goal is indeed “the end of Israel’s responsibilities for the fate of the Gaza Strip and the establishment of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel” and for “the region “, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared for the first time on Friday, in a security briefing to Parliament.
Israel would like to “hand over the keys” of the Gaza Strip to a third party which could be Egypt, without any guarantee that Cairo will accept this scenario postponed for decades, a source at the Ministry of Affairs deciphers for AFP foreigners, who wishes to remain anonymous.
No Arab or Muslim government has come forward at this stage.
Another option supported by Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid would be a return to the PA’s Gaza administration, with which Israel cooperates to manage the occupied West Bank.
“But there is little hope that the PA, already deeply unpopular, could return to Gaza following an Israeli invasion and not be treated as an enemy,” Crisis Group experts say in a note.
The essential Americans
The option of mixed international supervision, a hybrid team, could also be on the table.
“The favorite option of the Israelis and Americans would be an international structure with the Palestinian Authority and for example Saudi funds, with American or European assistance in terms of administration,” says analyst Eitan Shamir, director of Begin- Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
But according to him, “what will happen in Gaza is mainly what the Americans decide,” he specifies.
After the October 7 massacres in southern Israel, in which more than 200 people were also kidnapped by Hamas, Washington reaffirmed its unfailing support for Israel and promised military aid of nearly $15 billion.
“The Americans have joined our war cabinet and we can say that they are the ones who supervise the operations, even that they do the Baby sitting of the cabinet,” said Mr. Shamir.
But Joe Biden has no stated plan for Gaza after the possible invasion and asks Israel to think carefully about what comes next.
“There are different ideas about what could follow, but all this must be resolved even if Israel faces the current threat,” insisted the head of American diplomacy Anthony Blinken on Sunday evening.