Will the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the poverty rate be visible this year? Anyway, in 2020, it would have remained stable, just like the inequalities in living standards, according to a first estimate published Wednesday, November 3 by INSEE. The latter highlights the effects of government measures to support the economy and low-income households.
Last year, the monetary poverty rate “stagnate” to 14.6% of the population * (or 9.3 million people), as in 2019, says the public institute for statistical studies. As for income inequalities – measured by the ratio between the mass of living standards held by the top 20% and that held by the bottom 20% – they “would remain unchanged” also. THE‘Insee concedes that the results could have been different if its estimate included the informal economy, including moonlighting, which may have suffered particularly from the health crisis.
These are preliminary estimates, carried out by “micro-simulations”, and not the real poverty rate for 2020, which will only be calculated in the course of 2022, from tax and social data concerning the vast majority of people. population.
The stability of the poverty rate can be explained in part by the government policy of “whatever the cost”, estimates the institute. Without the support for short-time working and the exceptional aid paid to the poorest, the rate would undoubtedly have increased by 0.6 point. Or even more, since this estimate does not take into account any business failures that would have resulted from a lack of government support.
“Poverty has undoubtedly intensified but has not exploded”, summarizes the Director General of INSEE, Jean-Luc Tavernier. In other words, the number of poor has not overall increased, but that does not prevent “some poverty situations have worsened thanks to the crisis”, according to this manager, for whom “a single indicator cannot account for a social or economic reality such as poverty”, which “is not just monetary”.
* The poverty line is set by convention at 60% of the median standard of living.