Forty days of protest, often violently repressed. The revolt has not weakened in Iran since the death of Mahsa Amini, died on September 16 three days after her arrest in Tehran by the morality police for a few strands of hair protruding from her veil. In response, the regime multiplies the arrests (a thousand since the beginning of the demonstrations according to an official report) and the cuts of the Internet.
This repression is bloody. The NGO Iran Human Rights, based in Norway, estimated on Tuesday, October 25, that 141 people, including children, have died since the outbreak of the protest.
>> IN PICTURES. In Iran and around the world, a month of protest after the death of Mahsa Amini.
Despite this violence, a tribute ceremony marking the end of the traditional 40-day mourning, echoing the duration of the movement, gathered hundreds of people on Wednesday in Saghez, in the Iranian province of Kurdistan where Mahsa Amini was from. The slogan has remained the same since the first demonstrations: “Woman, life, freedom”. According Hengaw, a Norwegian-based Iranian Kurdish rights group, security forces opened fire on the crowd.
Destabilized, will the mullahs’ regime intensify repression? How can the protest movement continue? Franceinfo interviewed Dorna Javan, doctoral student in political science at Science Po Lyon and specialist in mobilizations in Iran.
Franceinfo: Despite the severe repression that has taken place since the beginning of the protest, the movement is not weakening. How do you analyze it?
Dorna Javan: It is obviously impossible to predict the future, but it is very likely that the movement will continue. The regime faces a new generation of activists, which stands out from those that preceded it or from the protest movements of 2009. Iranians are rising up against both an authoritarian regime and a patriarchal system. We see it with the number of women who take off their veils in the public space and realize that they are capable of effecting real change. Going back seems difficult.
The cause of women has become a priority concern in the country, also for many men. But she was also able to cause other ethnic claims to resurface around her (from the different minorities present in Iran)economic, political, and even environmental. The participation in the protest, through strikes or demonstrations, of the teaching body, the workers or the workers of the big bazaars can finally constitute an important factor in making the movement last.
Now weakened, are the authorities likely to intensify repression?
The repression is very strong and continues. The government relies on several armed forces: the police, the Revolutionary Guards and the bassidjis [une force paramilitaire iranienne]. According to researchers, the regime could rely on allied armed forces abroad, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the Hachd al-Chaabi militia in Iraq, to intensify the repression. A priori, this is not the case for the moment.
We must also take into account the fatigue of the army. Its repressive task is made more difficult by the number of cities mobilized and participants in the demonstrations. If the protest calms down in the streets, to focus in universities or schools, the regime will be able to take the opportunity to step up another notch in repression, by intensifying tracking and arrests, for example by identifying people on videos that run on social networks or people active on these channels.
Can we already identify the consequences of this movement on Iranian society?
The impact on society is quite visible. Years ago, a woman walking the streets without a veil could be attacked, even by civilians. Today, part of society not only gets used to seeing women without veils in public space, but also encourages it. In videos circulating on social networks, we can see men applauding when women pass by without a veil, in jeans and t-shirts, encouraging them. VShas become a symbol of protest. These women, with their repertoire of action in this movement (turning their veil in the air for example), have already changed something in this very patriarchal society.