Despite divisions on immigration law, the presidential majority prepares the European elections

The presidential majority may have displayed its divisions on the immigration law, but it is working, no matter what, to prepare for the European elections.

The Macronists stick to their calendar, almost as if nothing had happened. Thursday, December 21 in the evening, there will be the special European executive office of Renaissance. Upstream, Stéphane Séjourné, François Bayrou and Édouard Philippe met on Wednesday to talk together for the first time about the election of June 9, 2024. The main principles were set by the three party leaders: not to go on the campaign trail too early with unnecessary spending as long as the French do not have the lead in the European elections, but still moving from the pre-campaign to the campaign at the end of January by going into the field, by investing in social networks to talk about Europe.

It was “a pretty cool bistro discussion”, we are told. Stewardship will be managed by their lieutenants. The three majority party leaders left aside potential areas of friction, such as the number of places each party has on the list. “Now is not the time to let breaches open,” insists a MoDem executive, the last few days having been sufficiently harsh for the majority. The head of the list was mentioned, a place eyed by Stéphane Séjourné, presented by many as the “natural and legitimate candidate”. François Bayrou and Édouard Philippe did not propose alternative names, even if behind the scenes members of the majority wonder if it is “the right profile in the political context”.

Objective: reverse the trend

The Macronist list is not celebrating in the polls: around 20%, sometimes 21% but sometimes 18%, in any case, systematically 8 to 10 points behind Jordan Bardella. “The RN is at its ceiling and will fall, we are at our floor”, reassures a Renaissance leader. “We’re going to have a huge loss,” On the contrary, fears someone close to Édouard Philippe.

There are questions about the traces that the psychodrama around immigration law could leave. What if it pushed center-left voters towards Raphaël Glucksmann’s PS list? “No one knows him outside of Paris,” torpedo Macronists but a minister warns: “If he has a good campaign, he can do 15”. What if, conversely, there was a risk of loss to… LR? This is what a Horizons elected official fears so much “the majority gives the impression of not accepting immigration law”. “We must not have the law shameful”, intimate Renaissance setting, “opinion is with us”. And yet others can’t wait: “get out of this rotten debate”.