Soon Belarusian troops on Ukrainian soil? This is the question that arises after the latest statements by the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Russia. The Head of State, who accuses Ukraine of preparing an attack against his country, announced on Monday the deployment of a “Russian-Belarusian grouping”, without giving further details on its nature or location. Minsk specified on Tuesday 11 October that the objectives of this grouping were “purely defensive”.
However, the day before, “guided rocket fire took place (…) from Belarusian territory towards Ukraine“, assured AFP Pierre Grasser, French researcher associated with the Sorbonne center, identities, international relations and civilization of Europe (Sirice). To what extent is Belarus involved in the war between kyiv and Moscow? Do Alexander Lukashenko’s announcements mark a turning point in the conflict? Franceinfo deciphers Minsk’s change in posture.
What do the Minsk announcements mean?
The deployment of a “Russian-Belarusian grouping” cast doubt on Belarus’ potential entry into the war. “The first interpretation of this announcement is that the sending of Belarusian soldiers to Ukrainian territory could be facilitated in the future”, analyzes Yauheni Kryzhanouski, researcher in political science at the University of Strasbourg. An unlikely hypothesis, however, according to him.
“It would be frowned upon by the population, but also by military circles. The war is very unpopular from the Belarusian point of view.”
Yauheni Kryzhanouski, political scientistat franceinfo
The second hypothesis around Minsk’s commitment, which is more plausible, is to offer Moscow easier access to the northern part of Ukraine, including its capital kyiv, through Belarusian territory. “Its goal may be to reinforce the presence of Russian troops in Belarus to be able to attack kyiv more easily”, says the researcher. Moreover, at the beginning of the war, “the attack on kyiv started from Belarus”recalled Monday Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory, who spoke at a conference organized by the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
With my comments and analysis on recent developments. https://t.co/0GNectRq5s
— Arnaud Dubien (@ArnaudDubien) October 10, 2022
Why is Belarus reaffirming its commitment now?
After advances by Ukrainian forces in the south and east last week, Moscow is seeking to regain control. However, the assistance of Belarus could be invaluable to it for “strengthen the northern front in order to weaken the Ukrainian counter-offensive” and “organize a strategy of revenge”explains Yauheni Kryzhanouski. A strategy that is already clearly visible. Vladimir Putin has confirmed a campaign “massive” bombardment of Ukraine launched on Monday by Russian forces. He also promised replicas “severe” in case of new Ukrainian attacks. kyiv has also accused Russia of launching Iranian drones from Belarus.
As a rule, Minsk has little choice but to follow the wishes of the Kremlin. Isolated from the West, Belarus has had Moscow as its only ally since the 2020 protests against the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko as president. Economically, the country also depends a lot on its imposing neighbour, which provides it with its raw materials and constitutes a large market for reselling processed products.
“Belarus has become hostage to its economic dependence on Moscow.”
Yauheni Kryzhanouski, political scientistat franceinfo
Since the start of the war, has his support for Russia been clear?
Although the Belarusian army has never taken part in the fighting since the beginning of the war, the country serves logistical support to Russian troops. “Belarus’ support for Russia has always been very clear. Moscow uses its infrastructure, such as hospitals or railways. The first attack on kyiv, moreover, came from the Belarusian border. Minsk facilitates Russian aggression “insists Yauheni Kryzhanouski.
However, Alexander Lukashenko tries to remain discreet about his role as a facilitator of war, because his regime was built on stability and peace. “There is no political freedom in Belarus, but at least there is peace and a better economic situation than in Russia or Ukraine. Alexander Lukashenko will no longer be able to rely on this discourse of stability if the country is actively engaged in war”analyzes the political scientist.
Is Belarus an important force on which Moscow can rely?
Its geographical proximity to Ukraine is valuable to Russia, but Belarusian forces are not considered up to par by experts. “The Belarusian army is not very efficient”highlighted Arnaud Dubien, who counts on about 100,000 soldiers and only “a few tens of thousands” of combat units. By comparison, at the very beginning of the conflict at the end of February, the Russian army had 900,000 soldiers and the Ukrainian army almost 200,000. “It can’t change the meaning of war, it’s not the elite troops”adds Yauheni Kryzhanouski about the Belarusian forces.
How did the international community react to his announcements?
The G7 countries, meeting urgently on Tuesday, October 11 after the Russian strikes carried out the day before, in particular on kyiv, attacked Minsk. The announcement of the creation of a common military force constitutes “the most recent example of complicity” of Belarus with Russia, according to G7 leaders. “We reiterate our call on the Belarusian authorities to stop allowing the Russian armed forces to use” their territory to act against Ukraine, they added.
Catherine Colonna, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, said Tuesday morning on France Inter that Minsk “would be well advised” not to enter into conflict. “We must issue a warning to this country. Any further support for Russia’s war in Ukraine will lead to additional sanctions”she said, recalling that Belarus was already under sanctions.
.@MinColonna : “A warning must be issued to Belarus: any additional support for the war led by Russia in Ukraine will lead to additional sanctions” #le7930inter pic.twitter.com/m4N1QkIrol
– France Inter (@franceinter) October 11, 2022
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte also castigated the stance taken by Minsk. “I consider that the belarusian diet is an accomplice in the war waged since February 24 against Ukraine. The fact that his army has so far not actively fought does not change much of the matter. (…) Belarus has ceased to be a sovereign state to become a Russian military base”she told the Figaro.