Upon learning that Denis Coderre was considering launching the race for leadership of the Liberal Party of Quebec, more than one sympathizer must have wondered whether to laugh or cry about it. Since its defeat in 2018, we had the impression that the PLQ was sinking into marginality and insignificance, but burlesque should not be excluded.
In reality, the candidacy of the former mayor of Montreal should not constitute a big surprise. She is the perfect illustration of the aphorism dear to former Alberta Prime Minister Ralph Klein: “In politics, no means maybe, and maybe means yes. »
After his first defeat against Valérie Plante, Mr. Coderre had ruled out in a way that seemed categorical any possibility of a rematch. After the resignation of Dominique Anglade, he said he had definitively turned the page on politics. “You can’t introduce yourself (sic) to all the racks,” he said. “Lots of people called me. The answer is no, I won’t go. »
In November 2022, a second defeat at town hall did not, however, prevent him from clearly being the favorite of liberal voters to succeed Mme England. A Léger poll credited him with 17% support, far ahead of Marwah Rizqy (3%), François-Philippe Champagne (1%) or Joël Lightbound (0%). At the time, we had not even thought about including among the potential candidates the name of the only member of the caucus who was seriously considering entering the race, Frédéric Beauchemin (Marguerite-Bourgeoys).
Politics abhors a vacuum, and there is a huge one to fill in the PLQ. If the party leadership, supported by the delegates to the general council, decided to postpone the choice of the next leader until 2025, it is because the prospect of seeing Mr. Beauchemin elected by acclamation appeared catastrophic to them.
The possibility that Mr. Coderre becomes leader will seem just as worrying in the eyes of many, but his candidacy would at least provide the PLQ with media attention that it sorely lacks, if only by provoking the creation of an ABC movement – anybody but Coderreanyone except Coderre.
Between his two defeats at town hall, he claimed to have changed, but we saw that this was not the case. Moving from the municipal scene to the national scene will not transform it further. Everyone knows their qualities, and especially their faults. His secrecy in the Formula E file weighed down his campaign in 2017. During that of 2021, it was his stubbornness in refusing to reveal his income and the identity of his employers during the period when he had taken leave from politics.
He certainly does not lack dynamism, but his style of leadership, marked by an authoritarianism from another era, is the polar opposite of this policy done differently which explains the success of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
During the 2022 Quebec campaign, particularly during the televised debates, Prime Minister Legault seemed a little overwhelmed in the face of his young opponents from the PQ and Québec Solidaire. The comparison will not serve Mr. Coderre any better.
There is also a fundamental question. The PLQ is trying to get closer to the French-speaking electorate, who rejected it massively in October 2022, but Mr. Coderre’s ambiguous positions on language had considerably harmed him in his attempt to reconquer City Hall .
The day after the 2021 defeat, Hadrien Parizeau, who was responsible for the linguistic file in his team, strongly criticized the “convoluted” position of his leader aimed at seducing English-speaking voters, in which he saw an irritant for the majority French-speaking. Mr. Parizeau had turned his back on Mayor Plante’s party, believing that Mr. Coderre would be a better defender of French, but he was disillusioned. “Sovereignists and nationalists asked me how I could support a man like that,” he said.
During an interview with the editorial team of Duty During the campaign, Mr. Coderre was asked what he planned to do in favor of French, but he instead praised the “added value” that diversity and the North American “English reality” brought to Montreal. He deplored the “reductive vision” of certain provisions of Bill 96 and warned against the “provincialism syndrome”.
This way of seeing things is undoubtedly likely to please the English-speaking clientele of the PLQ, but it is difficult to see how it could contribute to the desired reconnection with the French-speaking majority.
In a previous life, Mr. Coderre lived in Ottawa during the good years of the Chrétien-Dion tandem, when the fight against separatism seemed to monopolize all energies. If the resurrection of the PQ makes the Liberals believe they need a new “Captain Canada,” he could well be their man.