Do you have any idea of the reason that would explain the phenomenal increase in electricity demand in Quebec since 2020? The curve has been going down since 2012 while it has skyrocketed from 2020. As far as I know, the cold averages have not changed dramatically in 10 years. – Gilles Marsolais
You are right, it has not been colder every year since 2020. We are talking here about peak electricity demand, or the amount of electricity required in winter, during periods of extreme cold. It is during this period estimated at 100 hours per year, between December and March, that the Hydro-Québec network cannot supply demand and electricity must be imported from neighboring networks, at a very high cost. . The rest of the year, Hydro-Québec’s production capacity is amply sufficient to meet Quebec’s needs.
Heating needs explain the explosion in peak demand. Heating consumes the majority of electricity in the residential sector in Quebec. And 80% of Quebecers heat themselves with electricity, according to the 2023 edition of the State of Energy in Quebec.
Other energy sources used for heating, namely fuel oil and natural gas, are losing ground. Oil heating, in particular, is on the verge of disappearing in Quebec.
Since December 2021, it has been prohibited to install an oil heating system in new constructions in Quebec, according to a regulation from the Ministry of the Environment.
This regulation generated a massive shift from oil heating to electricity, which partly explains the skyrocketing increase in peak demand from 2020.
The remaining oil heating systems will soon disappear since since December 31, 2023, it is also prohibited to repair oil heating devices that are more than 20 years old and it is also prohibited to replace them with installations that use natural gas or another fossil fuel.
Cities want to ban natural gas heating systems in new construction. The City of Prévost, in the Laurentians, has done so and Montreal is considering it.
The move away from gas or oil heating systems is the main explanation for the recent increase in peak demand.
She’s not the only one. Total electricity consumption increases with population, the construction of new homes and the electrification of cars. Electric vehicles can be charged outside peak electricity periods, but the heating cannot be moved. We need it when it’s cold.
Not only are new houses all-electric, they are also increasingly larger and their heating needs are greater.
The average surface area of housing in Quebec is constantly increasing. Between 1990 and 2022, the surface area of housing increased by 22%.
The inadequacy of the Quebec electricity network during cold waves has always been a reality for Hydro-Québec. Tools have been designed to manage this annual peak, such as dynamic pricing and Hilo, which discourage electricity use at certain times of the day, in the morning and evening, but the needs are growing faster than the solutions.
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